SaintsWin: Opinion & Analysis

Urgency and Mark Ingram --or-- Mending an Obstruction

2013-05-15T08:02:00.001-05:00

Since ~~Beelzebub~~ Roger Goodell reinstated Sean Payton in January, Payton has repeatedly stated his intent to improve the Saints' running game in 2013.

In a Monday afternoon interview on 870 AM with Bobby and Deke, Payton used the word "balance" four or five times and said this specifically:

We have looked closely at what’s been our formula. Each year is a little bit different, but certainly we had balance and our most success when we have had a good run-pass ratio. When it gets tilted heavy to one end, it’s hurting more than just your offensive production; it begins to weigh on the defense and other elements of your team ...

I know all the other elements of the game that that can help. It helps the quarterback’s production by helping him become more efficient and you become a better defense. It also helps you control games when you want to. There are times in games when you want to have control, and when you are able to rush the football you have a little bit better sense of that than if you are not able to. That is certainly one area that we have to be better at.

We've had the "balance" discussion innumerable times, and I'm not going to rehash it here. Suffice it say, if Payton feels that committing to the running game is important, even in the face of the primacy of his passing attack, then we should trust him. Surely, it's derived from the Payton-era correlation of championship-caliber teams and efficient rushing attacks.

Here's the breakdown of the run/pass ratio during Payton's tenure:

Because last year represented the widest disparity in run/pass attempts since Payton arrived in New Orleans, it makes sense that optimizing the running game is one of the first tweaks Payton will make.

Last week, Pierre Thomas reiterated this in an interview with Larry Holder:

Sean talked about that when he came back. When we had our first team meeting, he talked about that. He said we definitely need to get back to that ground game. There's going to be more focus this year on that ground game than any year.

One of the more interesting, and encouraging, interpretations of Payton's renewed commitment comes from the Who Dat Social Club blog, who opined that Payton is taking the long view with the running game. More specifically, WDSC reasoned that, in order for the Saints to win the Super Bowl in the likely inclement conditions in New Jersey in early February, it's essential they possess a functional running game.

Here's the money quote:

Payton is perfectly aware of the location of the next Super Bowl: in northern New Jersey. In February. To get to the Super Bowl, you can capture a conference championship in the comfort of your own Dome. To win the Super Bowl, you’re going to have to play hard-nosed smash-mouth grind-it-out throwback football under appalling conditions. Probably ...

[Y]ou don’t remake yourself into a running team in two weeks. You need an entire season’s worth of practice and momentum to make that work. Payton’s not a fool ...

[T]he real reason the Saints are going to concentrate on rushing this season is that Payton is concentrating on February. It’s not because he has no faith in his personnel; it’s because he understands the entire point of this exercise.

Sounds great to me.

... And this brings us to Mark Ingram.

I can't think of a player on the Saints' offense facing a more critical year than Ingram, and with the departure of Chris Ivory, it's exponentially more important that Ingram finally integrate himself into the Saints' offense.

With his third pro season upcoming, Ingram has generated a few notable parallels to Reggie Bush during Bush's tenure with the Saints.

For a stretch of Bush's career in New Orleans, most notably in the largely post-Deuce seasons of 2007 and 2008, Bush's presence on the field seemed to often obstruct the Saints' offense more than it facilitated it. This was anecdotally evidenced in the fact that the Saints, when Bush didn't play due to injury, had a higher winning percentage (65% vs. 61%) and scored more points per game (29.8 vs. 26.3).

In much the same way, especially during 2012, it appeared that when Ingram was on the field, his presence detracted from the offense's effectiveness. Maybe this is just a result of my misinterpretation, or maybe it's because Ingram was miscast in 2012 solely as a power back, or more likely it was because of Sean Payton's absence.

Any way you interpret it, though, Ingram hasn't effectively facilitated the Saints' offense in the manner Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, and a few others have over the years. Mostly, it feels like Ingram has been forced into the offense unnaturally. This was maybe less so the case in 2011, as Ingram seemed to be acclimating himself before injury derailed him for the season after ten games. Last year provided regression, or at least stagnation, and now the questions surrounding Ingram linger.

It's difficult to judge any Saints' player by the clusterfuckish, sans-Payton standards of 2012, and with Ingram, that comprises 16 of his 26 professional games. This season, then, is of paramount importance.

From my perspective, Ingram is equipped to handle a role similar to that of Pierre Thomas, and less like that of Chris Ivory or Mike Bell. Thomas, the quintessential runningback in the Payton offense, can do a little bit of everything, and can do it all in an above-average capacity. For the most part, Pierre Thomas is Sean Payton's answer to Bill Belichick's Kevin Faulk: versatile, reliable, capable, and tough.

As Thomas collects wear on the tread, it's important for Ingram to capably mirror Thomas' role. Can he do it? Ingram has shown a nose for the endzone (10 touchdowns in 278 rushing attempts), and though he hasn't been involved in the passing game (17 receptions in 26 games), when given the rare opportunity, he appears perfectly capable of being an effective pass catcher out of the backfield.

The reality, to date, is that Ingram, as a first round draft pick and Heisman trophy winner, has underperformed while battling injuries. 2013 feels like a make-or-break season for Ingram's long-term prospects with the Saints and the urgency is palpable.

The hope, of course, is that Sean Payton will scheme to optimally deploy Ingram this year, reminiscent of Payton's decision to alter his utilization of Reggie Bush in 2009. Then, after two seasons of struggling with inconsistency and being less-than-effective, Bush embraced a new (more-limited) role from Payton and improved his yards per carry from a three-year average of ~3.7 to 5.6.

Moreover, Bush stayed healthy all season. In the playoffs, he notched the longest rushing and punt return touchdowns in Saints' postseason history (to go along with his franchise record 88-yard touchdown reception against the Bears in the '06 NFCCG, notching an impressive hat trick of postseason records). Bush, while not necessarily living up to his perceived billing or the mountainous expectations heaped upon him, played a central role in the Saints' 2009 Super Bowl run.

Now, perhaps, it's Mark Ingram's turn to do the same.

Safety in Numbers

2013-05-01T08:20:00.000-05:00

Now that Kenny Vaccaro is in the fold for 2013, how does that affect the Saints' secondary as it's presently constituted?

Sean Payton lauded Vaccaro for his versatility, and indicated that Vaccaro has the potential to play both safety positions as well as the nickel cornerback. This is what Payton said about Vaccaro's role in his post-draft press conference:

One of the things that is attractive about this player is that ... he’s got that versatility to play not only safety, but to play down over the slot. ... I think he’s versatile enough to play either one of the safety positions and certainly a guy that can handle some of the nickel.

Though Vaccaro is technically listed as a free safety--Malcolm Jenkins' position--it appears that Vaccaro's role in New Orleans won't necessarily be limited to one positional assignment. Conventional wisdom seems to have been that, once the Saints drafted Vaccaro, Roman Harper would be on his way out of town.

But the fact that Vaccaro hasn't strictly been a strong safety, combined with the Saints guaranteeing $2.6 million of Harper's $5.25 million contract this season, indicates that Vaccaro wasn't specifically drafted to replace Roman Harper. In fact, Harper may stick around for another season.

In his post-draft press conference, Sean Payton mentioned that the Saints would have "competition at both safety spots." This, to me, signals that Jenkins is equally likely to be replaced by Kenny Vaccaro. Further bolstering this interpretation, Larry Holder reported that, prior to the draft,"Payton told Jenkins that Vaccaro could be an option for the Saints."

If Payton didn't feel that Vaccaro was a threat to Jenkins' job security--at least at the free safety spot--why would he proactively seek out Jenkins and discuss with him the possibility of drafting Vaccaro? Moreover, in none of his post-draft comments has Payton indicated that Jenkins will be the team's free safety this season.

Yesterday, during an interview on Sirius XM's "Moving the Chains," Mickey Loomis mentioned that, on passing downs, the Saints will likely move Malcolm Jenkins to the nickel cornerback position.

What this all means to me is that the Malcolm Jenkins-at-free-safety experiment is over.

If the Saints intend on playing Jenkins in the nickel on "passing downs," then the likelihood is that he won't be playing free safety all that much. The nickel cornerback slot is essentially a full-time role in today's pass-heavy NFL, and a role that Jenkins manned well during his rookie campaign in 2009. It seems to me that, as long as Vaccaro develops and performs in a manner that the Saints expect him to, he's here to replace Jenkins.

Further consider that in Jenkins' last 30 games as a free safety, he has just one interception and one forced fumble. Playing in 400 fewer defensive snaps than Jenkins did last season, the Saints' backup free safety Isa Abdul-Quddus intercepted two passes and, to me, showed more promise than Jenkins has over the course of three full seasons at the position.

This all leads me to believe that we're likely to see IAQ and Vaccaro handle the safety positions in passing situations, with Jenkins playing the nickel. In rush defense situations, we might be more likely to see Jenkins at the traditional free safety spot with Harper and/or Vaccaro near the line of scrimmage or in the box.

Mostly, I'd guess that the days of Roman Harper logging significant snaps and Malcolm Jenkins manning the free safety position are essentially over. With the development of IAQ and the drafting of Kenny Vaccaro, the Saints are set to remake a safety position that Pro Football Focus graded as the worst in football--by a wide margin--last season.

If Vaccaro is who the Saints think he is, then the Saints' defense is already on the mend.

Hello, Nasty

2013-04-23T15:06:00.001-05:00

Part two of the Sean Payton era gets underway on Thursday night, and the Saints' need for acquiring affordable, young talent is as important as it's been under the Payton-led Saints.

If the Loomis-Payton Saints have exhibited a weakness, it's been in the consistency of their drafting.

In large part, the Saints have subsisted on the spoils of their 2006 draft (ahem) bounty, with sporadic hits and too-frequent misses since then. Today, there are no players on the Saints' roster from either the 2007 or 2008 draft classes. The classes from '09 - '12 have produced a foundation that I'd deem mediocre. Or unremarkable. Or forgettable. Take your pick.

With an aging roster--especially on the offensive side of the ball--and an increasingly perilous salary cap position over the coming years, the draft (this year's and next's) holds the keys to the Saints' ability to remain a contender while the proverbial window still permits the gusts of championship aspiration.

This year isn't just a watershed because of Payton's return to sideline, it's equally so because this draft, and the five meager picks the Saints hold at this point, will noticeably impact the Saints' ability to compete during the next two seasons. As Ralph pointed out, the 2013 roster isn't quite what it's been in the past. With that said, it's crucial for the Saints to reverse their recent, stagnant draft trends.

In my opinion, the Saints would most immediately benefit from a capable pass rusher. Whether Victor Butler or Junior Galette or Martez Wilson will be that guy remains to be seen. Whether Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones is still on the board at #15 is unknown. If Wang gets his way, it's Mingo in a landslide. And while plenty of people might disagree or point out the potential shortcomings of drafting a "raw talent" like Mingo, I think the majority of fans, once it happened, would be pretty damn excited at the prospect of what might be with Mingo: a player who fills a glaring need, and one with the tools to be an all-pro.

The problem is, I don't think there's much of a chance that Mingo gets out of the top-ten. His potential is too damn plentiful. So that leaves Jarvis Jones as the next best likely candidate as a pass rusher. But will he even be there? And if he is, does he offer a comparative potential, so much so that the Saints draft for need and overlook the peripheral concerns surrounding Jones?

Here's what Coach Payton recently said about the team's possible first round selection:

Certainly we’re looking closely at our defense, and that would be a priority ... The challenge is when you see the magnet that sits up there much higher than the defensive player, for instance, and then are you just strictly trying to draft a need player as opposed to maybe the best available player. And I think the key is just, what’s the gap? And so when a player falls or you feel like you have a real high grade on a player, you have to pay attention to that.

Hmmm.

I interpret that to mean the Saints, with their first round pick, are focusing on defense unless there's an offensive player that's too good to pass up, need be damned. So who might that offensive player be?

While I'd be content if the Saints drafted a left tackle there, I don't think that's likely to happen. It sounds to me that Payton has settled on letting Charles Brown and Jason Smith battle it out at LT:

We signed Jason Smith recently. Charles Brown is a guy that is going to be competing over there. This is a great example of a job that is wide open. Hopefully the guys that have a chance to compete for that position step up and someone separates themselves. That kind of thing happened when (Jermon) Bushrod came into that position in our scrimmages against the Texans (in 2009).

We lost our starter there and Jermon stepped in and really earned the spot and became our starting left tackle for quite a while. I think time will tell. We have some guys that will get reps at that position. Hopefully it’s an easy decision and someone separates themselves.

If that means left tackle is less of an early round possibility, then that means, if the Saints do draft an offensive player with their first pick, it's likely either a wide receiver or, perhaps, a tight end. The most talked-about WR is, of course, West Virginia's Tavon Austin. He's slippery, and fast as fuck. He might be the next Desean Jackson. Or Darren Sproles. He also might be closer to Dexter McCluster or Trindon Holliday. Even so, that's all beside the point in my opinion.

Drafting Austin, a player whose skill set duplicates that of the roles filled by Sproles and Lance Moore, would make his selection ... I dunno ... gratuitous. I'm sure Payton would love to have him, and maybe that will trump the debate about everything else if he's available, especially considering that Sproles and Moore aren't exactly young anymore, and I'm sure it would be immensely entertaining to add Austin to the offense and special teams. But if he's anything other than immediately dynamic--that is, if he doesn't elevate the Saints' offense to 2011-level lethal, then selecting him is a minor disaster.

The Saints' offense will be plenty capable without him.

What nobody seems to be mentioning, as far as the offense is concerned, is drafting a tight end. Especially because of the presence of Jimmy Graham and the signing of Ben Watson, the possibility of drafting a tight end is an afterthought. And maybe rightfully so.

But what about Tyler Eifert, the 6'6, 250 pound TE who ran a sub-4.7 40 who's the clear-cut class of draftable tight ends?

Not only would adding Eifert mirror the multiple TE trend pioneered by Bill Belichick, it would also add a player who plays more like a WR than he does a traditional tight end. His scouting profile credits him with a "receiver-like build" and also notes that he "lines up with his hand down, in an H-back role, in the slot and outside."

Selecting Eifert both fills a need--that being another big, young, competent pass catcher--and it diversifies the offense. A new Paytonian wrinkle for 2013. On top of that, adding Eifert protects the Saints in the unlikely, but worst-case, scenario that Jimmy Graham doesn't re-sign with the team after the 2013 season.

Though Eifert appeared to be considered a mid-first round talent, ESPN's Todd McShay recently had Eifert going off the board at #6. I realize that's all a product of speculative mock drafting bullshit, but McShay has been the most accurate guy recently. We might want to give some weight to his opinions.

Eifert is definitely a valued commodity this year. The main issue, though, is whether he'll even hang around long enough for the Saints to potentially take him at #15.

Might he be that "magnet" Payton was talking about?

So where does Chris Ivory fit into all of this?

In case you haven't been following along during this (thankfully) slumbering offseason, Ivory appears to be on the cusp of being traded to the New York Jets. Andrew has speculated that won't happen until draft day, and that a potential trade-up looms. The Jets own the #9 and #13 picks, and there exists the possibility that a trade for Ivory will involve the Saints moving up to secure a player before the 15th pick.

How that might play out, whether it's a swap for the 9th or the 13th pick, what other compensation might be involved from either side, and who the Saints might be interested in moving up for remain a jumbled mess of conjecture.

But the possibility is there, and this event may be the key to the Saints' entire draft. I'd say the likelihood of the Saints trading up will involve a pass rusher, but I don't know shit. Just guessing here.

Whether any of this comes to fruition, or whether we're all out-thinking the room and Triplett is right that the Saints stand pat and take Kenny Vaccaro, is what the fun is all about.

One way or another, the Saints need to come away from this draft with players who can contribute now and into the future. With another poor draft, the Saints run the risk of doing what the late-Manning era Colts did: bloat their salary cap with a QB's enormous contract, and fail to effectively draft competent, affordable, young talent. When Manning got injured, the Colts imploded. And though it miraculously worked out in their favor when Andrew Luck landed in their laps, it rarely works out so neatly and seamlessly.

The Payton-Brees' Saints still have years of competitiveness left, so long as they effectively refresh the roster tree of talent with youth.

That starts in earnest on Thursday night.

Let the fun begin, and while we're at it, let the boos rain down on Roger Goodell.

Book Update #2

2013-03-21T08:58:00.000-05:00

My Saints/Bountygate book is now available for purchase.

Available in paperback here.

Available for Kindle at Amazon here.

Available for iBooks, Nook and virtually every other e-reader at Smashwords here.

Also available directly through Apple, Barnes & Noble, and other retailers.

Here's a quick overview of the book:

Of Bread and Circuses

The Story of Bountygate and the 2012 New Orleans Saints

Abstract

Of Bread and Circuses: The Story of Bountygate and the 2012 New Orleans Saints (OBAC) chronicles the New Orleans Saints' 2012 calendar year, and examines the events of Bountygate in detail.

From a crushing January 2012 playoff loss in San Francisco to Sean Payton's reinstatement a year later, the Saints weaved their way through one of the strangest years in the history of professional sports.

OBAC revisits the happenings of the Saints' 2012 calendar year; traces the roots of Bountygate; analyzes the saga's many distortions and misconceptions; offers a wider context for the events in question; and theorizes on the scandal's legacy.

Table of Contents

> Introduction

1. A Defensive Makeover

2. March 2, 2012: The Arrival of Bountygate

3. The Football World Reacts

4. Saints’ Coaches, Organization Punished

5. The Brees’ Negotiations

6. The Parcells’ Flirtation

7. “Kill the Head”

8. The Wiretapping Allegations

9. Conduct Detrimental

10. Challenging the Franchise Tag Designation

11. Examining the Bountygate Evidence

12. “Pure Fantasy” – or – “What The Hell Are You Doing, Roger?”

13. Mike Cerullo: The Disgruntled Whistleblower

14. An Investigation and an Induction

15. Holding Court

16. Dueling Declarations

17. A Historic Night

18. “A Big Sham”

19. A Recusal, a Revelation, and a Rivalry

20. Peak and Valley

21. The Tagliabue Ruling

22. Looming Infamy

The Legacy of Bountygate

· The NFL’s Motives

· Roger Goodell’s Credibility

· Why The Saints?

· A Final Word

> Coda: Sean Payton, A Second Act

Cover Art

Book Update

2013-03-06T12:13:00.004-06:00

Since the beginning of the year, I've been working on a book manuscript about the Saints' 2012 season and BountyGate.

I've finished the manuscript and completed two revisions of the book. I hope to have it published soon.

With that said, I know absolutely nothing about the publishing process, so there's still plenty of work to be done before this thing is truly finished.

But now that the book itself is mostly done, I'm going to figure out the best way to make it available as quickly as possible. When the publishing process is underway, I'll likely post a few excerpts here.

Once I have more information to share, I will post it.

On Roger Goodell and the Media

2013-02-01T15:26:00.000-06:00

For the past ten days or so, the media covering the NFL has made it a priority to humanize and praise Roger Goodell in spite of Goodell not being worthy of these canonizations.

The timing of this, obviously, is no coincidence as it’s intended to repair Goodell’s badly-damaged reputation among Saints’ fans during his time in New Orleans.

It’s not that Goodell cares about what New Orleanians and Saints’ fans think, it’s just that he needs to balance a narrative that has cast him in a largely negative light.

Goodell hasn’t unfairly earned this negative image, either. In fact, he’s unwittingly crafted this reality through his various misdeeds as Commissioner of the NFL. For the sake of brevity, I won’t recount them all in detail but in no particular order, Goodell has presided over all of this: BountyGate; the NFL’s lockout of the players; the NFL’s lockout of the referees; the purposeful destruction of the SpyGate evidence; collusion among the NFL’s owners to suppress players’ salaries; securing “lockout insurance” for NFL owners by fraudulently engineering television contracts; a continued drive for an 18-game season in spite of the “player safety” initiative; and the concussion crisis.

Fans who attend the NFL draft routinely boo Goodell mercilessly. 61% of NFL players disapprove of him.

Regardless of the fact that the NFL’s profits have soared, despite the NFL’s ubiquitous popularity, Goodell is still unable to conduct himself favorably.

In spite of all of this, the media—by and large, though not in full—has gone to great lengths these past ten days to paint Goodell as some benevolent, gracious force. Besides the fact that it’s completely disingenuous, it is also revealing of Goodell. That his handlers, his advisers, and his PR weaponry feel the need to conduct a concerted campaign to validate Goodell reveals much.

One, it’s indicative of the fact that Goodell’s track record is so lousy that it’s deemed vital to strategically position him as galvanizing and well-intentioned via carefully-crafted media campaign. Was he really this, no media campaign would be necessary, nor would negative reaction to his positioning as such predominate.

It’s clearly not a coincidence that, suddenly, article after article repeats a familiar message that goes something like this: Goodell saved the Saints and the Superdome after Katrina, or; Goodell is faced with making tough choices to “change the culture," or; Goodell is a good-humored guy because [insert incredibly lame anecdotal story from 25 years ago here], or; Saints’ fans shouldn’t embarrass their city by expressing their disdain for Goodell.

These distinct talking points didn’t randomly coalesce in the lead-up to the Super Bowl. They’re all a result of a premeditated strategy to ease Goodell’s potential difficulties in New Orleans and seek balance for his damaged reputation. The fact that this is necessary is damning not to Saints’ fans and to New Orleans, but damning to Goodell himself.

He’s painted himself into an unfavorable corner, and now his handlers are forced to repaint the room.

They’ve resorted to what Wang called “ridiculous, revisionist assertions” and “condescending pre-emptive admonitions coming from the mayor and Roger's sycophants in the Legitimate Media.”

You’d hope that they’re not fooling anybody, but they did it during BountyGate and I’m sure they’re doing it again now.

This balancing act is just a repeat of the BountyGate strategy, anyway. For years the conventional narrative in the public domain was that football was inherently dangerous, that post-career health maladies were a result of football’s violence, that the NFL failed to educate their players on the risks involved, and that the NFL callously discarded its retirees.

When that narrative reached a critical mass and threatened to significantly damage the NFL’s brand and profitability, the NFL took full measures in attempt to alter that narrative in their favor. They did this, partly, by setting the fire of BountyGate in order to be seen nobly extinguishing it.

BountyGate was just a tenet of a larger strategy aimed at changing conventional wisdom that was injurious to the NFL’s long-term viability. Instead of actively attempting to protect player health, the NFL only needs to craft a perception that they are doing so. This is why you see the NFL continue to push for an 18-game season while championing “player safety” concurrently.

Much the same way, the NFL PR’s machine and enabling media was forced this week to shift the narrative on Goodell from megalomaniac to principled, benevolent leader. When critical mass and widespread sentiment became so glaring that it threatened to be damaging to the NFL on its grandest stage, a counter-strategy became a necessity.

And the NFL media makes the transaction complete. They are the middlemen in this trafficking of bullshit.

Aside from trustworthy and skeptical voices like Mike Florio, Bill Simmons, and Dan Lebatard, the majority of the media serves only to stenograph whatever message the NFL spoon feeds them. It’s rooted in a faulty assumption of infallibility.

Moreover, it’s revealing of an establishment media that operates more as an arm of the NFL’s marketing department, and less as objective assessors and seekers of truth.

If sports journalism isn’t already dead, then last rites are on the way.

2012 Season Index

2013-01-01T09:49:00.000-06:00

Here's a partial archive of content from 2012, if you're twisted enough to re-live it.

* Everything BountyGate

* Week 1, Kromer's Choice
* Week 2, On Borrowed Time
* Week 3, Stumbling into Goodell's Abyss
* Week 4, A Step Behind

* Week 5, Deus Ex Machina
* Week 6, --bye week--
* Week 7, The Arrival of Big Poppa
* Week 8, A Graying Promise
* Week 9, Strange Magic

* Week 10, No Sympathy for the Devil
* Week 11, Can't You Hear Me Knocking?
* Week 12, Domino Theory
* Week 13, The Gallow's Pole

* Week 14, A Weary Pantomime
* Week 15, Trouble No More
* Week 16, --no content (holidays)--
* Week 17, --no content (holidays)--

Below are the Saints' league rankings in a variety of statistical categories this season.

Arrows indicate mobility since week twelve; adjustments reflect league ranking, not raw statistical output. Numbers italicized in parentheses indicate previous ranking after twelve games.

Offense
* Points/game: 3rd ↑ (5th)
* First half points scored: 2nd ↑ (3rd)
* Second half points scored: 8th ↑ (12th)
* Red zone scoring % (TDs): 2nd ↓ (1st)

* Yards: 2nd ↑ (6th)
* Yards/play: 1st, tie ↑ (3rd)
* 3rd down conversion %: 4th ↑ (5th)

* Rush yards/game: 25th ↑ (26th)
* Rush yards/attempt: 13th ↓ (9th)
* Rush play %: 29th, tie ↑ (31st)

* Pass yards: 1st ↑ (3rd)
* Pass yards/attempt: 7th ↓ (6th)

* Point differential: 15th, +7 (15th)

* DVOA: 9th (9th)
* WPA: 10th ↑ (14th)

------------------------------------------------------

Defense
* Points allowed/game: 31st ↓ (26th)
* First half points allowed: 32nd ↓ (32nd)
* Second half points allowed: 27th ↓ (12th)
* Red zone scoring % allowed (TDs): 21st ↓ (16th)

* Yards allowed: 32nd (32nd)
* Yards allowed/play: 32nd (32nd)
* 3rd down conversion % allowed: 18th ↓ (11th)

* Rush yards allowed: 32nd (32nd)
* Rush yards allowed/attempt: 32nd (32nd)

* Pass yards allowed: 31st ↓ (30th)
* Pass yards allowed/attempt: 32nd ↓ (31st)

* DVOA: 32nd ↓ (30th)
* WPA: 31st ↓ (30th)

------------------------------------------------------

Assorted
* Turnover Margin: 14th, +2 ↓ (10th)
* Penalties: 21st, tie ↓ (13th)
* Passer rating differential: 13th ↑ (21st)

Drive Stats
* Offense
- Average starting field position: 31st ↓ (29th)
- Drive success rate: 3rd (3rd)
- Points/drive: 4th (4th)

* Defense
- Average starting field position: 25th ↓ (19th)
- Drive success rate: 32nd (32nd)
- Points allowed/drive: 31st ↓ (26th)

------------------------------------------------------

Special Teams
* Thomas Morstead
- Punting, gross average: 1st, 50.5 ↑ (2nd [50])
- Punting, net average: 1st, tie, 43.2 (1st [45.9])

* Kickoff returns: 11th ↓ (5th)
* Punt returns: 26th ↓ (19th)
* DVOA: 23rd ↓ (8th)

Week 17, Panthers at Saints

2012-12-31T09:41:00.001-06:00

Later this week, when life slows down a bit, I'll be writing a 2012 season-ending post.

Until then, here are some stats.

Score: Panthers 44, Saints 38

Record: 7-9

Complete Box Score

Stat Chart:

Week 16, Saints at Cowboys

2012-12-29T10:09:00.002-06:00

Due to holiday travel, I was unable to write anything for week 16.

In the meantime, here are the stats from week 16:

Score: Saints 34, Cowboys 31
Record: 7-8
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

Week 15, Bucs at Saints: Trouble No More

2012-12-17T08:17:00.000-06:00

First, the stats.

Score: Saints 41, Bucs 0
Record: 6-8
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

TROUBLE NO MORE

As far as 2012 Saints' football goes, this was about as perfect a week as possible.

The past 11 months have been neither enjoyable nor encouraging but, like many things in life, they turn for the better after awhile. In a seeming moment the discontent and disillusion faded, with hope and a promise of redemption assuming their place.

So begins the transition to the 2013 Saints' season.

In the span of six days, the Saints were vindicated from the injustices of BountyGate; Drew Brees reminded us why he secured a $100 million contract; the defense--once saddled with the infamy of historic futility--delivered the team's first shutout since 1995; backup safeties intercepted two passes; Cam Jordan's steady ascension continued; Mark Ingram made his presence on the field worthwhile; Joe Morgan reinforced his burgeoning relevance as a big-play threat; and the Saints scored over 40 points for the first time in nearly a year.

All of those issues, heretofore thorns, anxieties, and uncertainties that pestered, suddenly vanished into irrelevance. Ephemeral or not, this week's reassurances were a refreshing exhalation and a sign that hope reigns.

And, of course, Joe Vitt called Mike Cerullo an idiot.

Wins, all around.

But with normalcy returning, and with the hope of next season already on the horizon, one issue--the largest of all--still remains: Sean Payton.

Will he or won't he coach the Saints again?

How did we even get here?

In September 2011 Sean Payton signed a five-year contract extension with the Saints. At some point after that--we don't know exactly when--the NFL decided that a provision in the contract was unacceptable, and subsequently rejected the contract.

As a result, when he's reinstated, Sean Payton will no longer be under contract with the Saints.

The provision in question (the one the league rejected) enabled Payton to void his contract if Mickey Loomis was fired, suspended, or in any way no longer with the team. This was viewed by some as the "Rita Clause," with Payton hedging against his reservations of working directly with/for Rita Benson LeBlanc.

For whatever reason, the NFL saw this provision as unacceptable.

After this, it gets--and still remains--exceptionally murky.

When exactly did the NFL reject the contract? When did they relay this information to Sean Payton and the Saints?

In March 2012 during Sean Payton's BountyGate appeals, Payton inquired (to Roger Goodell) as to the status of his contract extension and at that point, Goodell informed Payton the NFL had rejected the contract.

For those scoring at home, that's a full seven months after the contract was signed and submitted to the league for approval.

Why did the NFL take so long to make this determination? Why did it take seven months to officially reject the contract based on one simple clause? Further, in the seven months that Payton awaited approval of his extension, were he and the Saints aware of the reason the contract was under review? Were they allowed to re-negotiate during that time period? Did they know what was happening?

These questions appear to remain unanswered, and they yet again cast a cloud of suspicion over the NFL.

Most important, why wasn't the extension rejected in a timely manner that would have allowed Payton and the Saints to re-negotiate during the 2011 season? And why finally give Payton official notice at a time when he was suspended, and thus unable to resume the re-negotiation process?

Was the NFL intentionally obstructing Payton all along? Was this a result of Goodell's personal vendetta against Sean Payton?

Something's wrong here.

In the meantime, the Saints fell apart. Payton, without a contract, quickly acquired a massive amount of newfound contract leverage.

And so the season's biggest question now remains: will Sean Payton re-sign with the Saints, or will he go elsewhere?

Only Sean Payton knows this, and it is completely up to him. By all appearances, Tom Benson has offered to make Payton the NFL's highest paid coach, but that only matters if Payton is willing to return. What we're less sure of--obviously--is what Payton is thinking or considering right now.

When circumstances change, so may outcomes.

Over a month after Jay Glazer reported that Payton "absolutely plans" (key word: "plans") to return to New Orleans, Glazer then reported (yesterday) that Payton wasn't "going to limit his options."

Why the change in tone? Surely this is just agent-speak, but does that make it untrue?

There are plenty of reasons the Saints are the logical choice for Payton: his relationship with Drew Brees and Mickey Loomis; an established system and functional roster; widespread community support (does this matter?); loyalty to the organization and the city (does this matter?); and perhaps a desire to restore what BountyGate unjustly dismantled.

Does Payton want the last word in New Orleans (I think he does, but it doesn't matter what I think), or does he want to start anew?

The odds probably favor Payton returning to the Saints. But how can we really know?

And if the Dallas job becomes an option?

To speculate:

What if Dallas is Sean Payton's dream job? What if Payton has decided that being close to his kids is more important than having an optimal relationship with his QB and GM? What if Payton harbors a tinge of ill-will toward Tom Benson for not more aggressively fighting Roger Goodell on BountyGate?

What if Payton's reticence to work with Rita LeBlanc outweighs his hesitation to peacefully coexist with Jerry Jones? What if there are other opportunities besides Dallas that Payton might be interested in? What if Payton simply wants a fresh start in his career?

This is obviously all baseless speculation, but it's worth mentioning precisely because Payton remains unsigned.

The fact that we're at this point is concerning enough.

Most recently? Tom Benson has vowed to sue the NFL should Payton ultimately sign elsewhere. Not a slow moment around these parts, ever.

It's been quite a renaissance for Benson these past seven years, and the Payton contract situation is his next big challenge. I guess if the worst case scenario unfolds, we'll at least be treated to the entertainment of Old Man Benson summoning his inner Al Davis.

Regardless of what happens, the shame in all of this resides in the nebulous circumstances surrounding the rejection of Payton's 2011 contract. That's what brought us to where we are today. It seems like this should have been resolved well over a year ago. But the NFL dragged it out for some reason.

And now we wait.

Trouble no more?

Chasing the Ghosts of BountyGate

2012-12-12T08:00:00.000-06:00

On Tuesday, Paul Tagliabue inched BountyGate toward its conclusion and provided a worthy context for the events in question.

Tagliabue exonerated the players--vacating their suspensions completely--while at the same time indicting Saints' coaches and the organization for their roles in the farce that is BountyGate.

When you parse the specifics, Tagliabue accused Saints' coaches of administering a pay-for-performance program and one (only one) "alleged bounty," sharply contrasting with Roger Goodell's initial portrayal of an institutionalized pay-to-injure program that routinely targeted opponents for injury.

What it boils down to is Saints' coaches being punished for administering a program largely in theory, not for anything that ever happened on the field. Supporting this assertion, Tagliabue stated "none of the discipline of any player here relates to on-field conduct."

It's a crystal-clear admission that whatever transpired in the locker room for motivational purposes never morphed into malice on the field. This is at the heart of the NFL's misguided quest to use the Saints as a public exhibit--a symbolic pelt--in their transparent, hollow campaign to champion player safety and insulate themselves from future litigation.

By Tagliabue's logic the players are innocent of any on-field transgressions while the coaches are guilty of administering a purportedly malicious program, one that no player ever implemented to the detriment of any opponent's wellbeing for three seasons.

The logic behind this--that the coaches established a program, yet the players never executed it in a manner that would invite discipline--is illustrative of the flimsy foundation that the BountyGate accusations have always rested upon.

What's more is that Tagliabue assented to a league-wide culture that has fostered the "acceptance of pay-for-performance reward programs," one in New Orleans that he said--via its evidence--supports the "realities of NFL team workplaces." More damning to Goodell's and the league's initial allegations is this precedent for handling pay-for-performance programs that reward clean, legal hits:

"[T]he League has not previously suspended or fined players for some of the activities in which these players participated and has in the recent past imposed only minimal fines on NFL Clubs - - not players - - of a mere $25,000 or less."

Tagliabue is specifically referring to similar programs run in Green Bay and New England in 2007 and 2008 (pg. 17) where the clubs were fined only $25,000. Reflecting Goodell's bias and overreach, Tagliabue asserted that the disparity in sanctions "raises significant issues regarding inconsistent treatment between players and teams."

In this context, the truly egregious and unjust punishments from Roger Goodell are more apparent than ever before. Even his predecessor admits it.

Further, Tagliabue explained that the NFL rules regarding entrenched pay-for-performance systems--which he examined in History of Performance Pools in the NFL (pg. 14)--are not "fully articulated" and that they lack a "concrete set of guidelines or prohibitions."

It's a reflection of the nebulous nature of 1.) the league's position on and 2.) what comprises said programs, and sheds a light on the coaches' denials; perhaps what Goodell accused the coaches of administering (pay-to-injure) wasn't in fact being administered, hence the presumed obfuscation.

No matter, Tagliabue espoused a belief that this program went awry in New Orleans, calling it "deeply misguided." When you consider that no discipline was levied for on-field misconduct, this statement reeks of hyperbole and may be included solely for the benefit of protecting Roger Goodell against further litigation.

Aside from one alleged bounty on Brett Favre, the evidence supporting a "deeply misguided" program is bare and, perhaps, nonexistent. As for the Favre bounty that the NFL was never capable of proving existed, Tagliabue said:

"Adding to the complexity, there is little evidence of the tone of any talk about a bounty before the Vikings game. Was any bounty pledged serious? Was it inspirational only? Was it typical 'trash talk' that occurs regularly before and during games? The parties presented no clear answers. No witness could confirm whether Vilma had any money in his hands as he spoke; no evidence was presented that $10,000 was available to him for purposes of paying a bounty or otherwise. There was no evidence that Vilma or anyone else paid any money to any player for any bounty-related hit on an opposing player in the Vikings game."

No clear answers. No evidence.

Anthony Hargrove's suspension Tagliabue called "unprecedented and unwarranted." Though Goodell punished Hargrove for making false statements to investigators, Tagliabue said "it remains unclear what exactly Hargrove was asked by investigators regarding the Program."

Think it through.

Goodell suspended Hargrove for lying, but wasn't sure what Hargrove had been asked. Doesn't the accuser require knowledge of the question before he can determine if the accused's answer is a lie? Right, Mary Jo White?

Who's the liar here?

Of Scott Fujita, Tagliabue called his non-participation in the Saints' program "undisputed," a judgment that may powerfully bolster another future lawsuit versus Goodell.

Tagliabue called Goodell's punishment of Will Smith "inappropriate when most or all of the Saints’ defensive unit committed the same or similar acts as those underpinning the discipline of Smith." Those acts? Participating in a pay-for-performance program that even Tagliabue conceded "the league has tolerated."

In full rebuke, Tagliabue chastised Goodell for violating "basic requirements for consistent treatment."

Basic.

Ultimately, Tagliabue fairly and correctly exonerated the players while assigning blame--tenuous as it may be--to the Saints' coaches in order to prevent Goodell from being exposed to the full brunt of Jonathan Vilma's pending defamation lawsuit.

Make no mistake about it: the CBA Appeals' Board overturned Goodell's ruling, Judge Berrigan castigated Goodell for his actions, and then Tagliabue vacated completely the punishments. That's a damning sequence of events for the commissioner, especially in light of the harshness of the penalties. This was a fuck-up of massive proportion.

Had Tagliabue found Goodell's investigation and punishments credible, he certainly would have upheld them. But he didn't. Never mind the spin and rhetoric coming from Greg Aiello and the NFL.

The proof is in the deed.

The fact that the NFL is now so desperately trying to shape these developments, a familiar act that's characterized their Bounty strategy along the way, is an indication that they're unwilling to let the actions speak for themselves.

In the end, it's obvious what happened.

The NFL took one alleged bounty from seasons ago, distorted it to represent a three-year pay-to-injure program, decimated the Saints with sanctions, held them high as a trophy of culture change, and then conducted a PR campaign under the auspices of benevolence and player safety.

The Saints and their fans were the collateral damage. Peripherally, Goodell slapped into line a franchise that dared defy him and exacted retribution on a coach (Payton) he was unable to keep under his terrorizing thumb.

It's a sad chapter for the NFL and, as always, we the fans are as big a loser as anyone in this stupid clusterfuck. What a god damned waste.

At the very least, the players and Saints' fans have been vindicated.

Not all is lost.

Week 14, Saints at Giants: A Weary Pantomime

2012-12-10T09:27:00.003-06:00

First, the stats.

Score: Giants 52, Saints 27
Record: 5-8
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

A WEARY PANTOMIME

They tried, but they failed.

The 2012 Saints are a brittle shell of their former dominant selves, and no amount of acting can any longer convince anyone that recapturing a past glory is in any way conceivable. At least not at present.

The party is officially over. The question now is: for how long?

For a large part of this year, they--and we--staged a performance, gauzy and unconvincing, in which rationalization played the lead role. There was the veteran locker room and battle-tested coaching staff. The historically-great offense. The quarterback foremost among his peers, gifted on the field and governing off of it. There was the league's most sought after defensive coordinator, infusing the team with a new scheme and a new hope. There were assistant coaches on the brink of their own stardom.

Relapsing into glories was an inevitability. Until it wasn't.

In the end it was all bluster and histrionics, fanfare and delusion.

Without Sean Payton, those foundations were of little consequence and the 2012 Saints sans Payton have been impostors.

courtesy of greenwichtime.com

After all that's happened, it's hard to fault them. But either way, it is the bare truth.

It's both easy and reassuring to assume that if Payton returns to New Orleans, it will be business as usual next year and a restoration of order will be soon underway.

But is that really the truth?

Making that assumption right now seems disingenuous and does a disservice to the evidence 2012 has offered us: a lack of consistent preparation; an incapacity for in-game adjustments; a perplexing deployment of offensive weapons; aging skill; the fatal rash of turnovers; a bewildering inability to catch the ball; and an overall failure to play a complete game in all three phases through 13 games.

Is all of that solely attributable to Payton's absence? Or is something more involved, a confluence of events conspiring to sink the Saints back to mediocrity?

Has the roster aged past efficiency? Are they less talented than many of us have assumed? Did Payton alone coax from them a level of performance they're incapable of attaining without him?

Can one person--Payton--be the panacea that cures the omnipresent ills of this season?

COMING UP SHORT

During the course of this season Drew Brees has morphed into an aberrant persona, timid and desperate and panicked and myopic. His trademarked assertive, gambling ways--throwing back shoulder, passing into tight windows, challenging multiple coverage, refusing to quit on plays--now reek of an obstinate, doomed recklessness.

Where these traits were once the natural byproduct of confidence and opportunity that led to the team's ascension, they now too often look like fatal reliance on an untrustworthy skill. The failure by Brees to recognize this--that assuming mammoth risk in situations that are incongruous to positive outcome--is perhaps the most mystifying development of all this season.

I guess one should never underestimate the power of denial.

Without Payton, Brees has been more scattershot and less precise, more damningly chaotic and less reassuringly composed. We're getting to the point where brushing off these performances as anomaly becomes more and more difficult.

Brees has three games to restore some faith.

Falling in line with Brees' shortcomings this year is the disappointing, and vexing, third season for Jimmy Graham.

I'm far from an authority on what's caused Graham to noticeably, instead of naturally, regress from the lofty heights of his 2011 campaign, but my best guess is that he's distracted and unfocused. Many times this season I've had the feeling that Graham's mind is less than centered on the task at hand. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I see.

Nowhere is Payton's absence more clearly illustrated than in the Jimmy Graham of 2012 vs. the Graham of 2011. Where Graham in 2011 was efficient, aggressive, and imposing, the Graham of 2012 has been inconsistent and modest, prone to stretches of mindless error and shrinking presence.

This might also be partly attributable to scheme and gameplanning, but Graham--like his team--has mostly come up short this season. What's fair to realize is that this is the first time in three seasons Jimmy Graham has invited criticism for his play on the field.

In 2010 he was wide-eyed and green, but steadily improving and impactful. Then in 2011 he arrived with a gusting ferocity--uncoverable, terrorizing, spectacular. And now in 2012 he's encountered an inevitable dose of professional adversity as his performance recedes.

What's crucial is how Graham responds over the next three weeks. Will he end the season on a high note before negotiating a new contract in the offseason? Or will he meekly whimper away, letting his 2012 season cast doubt upon what he so convincingly achieved in 2011?

I feel highly certain it's the former, but it will be reassuring to see it happen.

With three weeks left, and the Saints out of contention, it will be noteworthy to see who plays for pride and who goes through the motions.

This Saints' roster is in transition, and we'll receive some clues over the next three games of who will and won't be back in 2013.

As for the Saints' prospects in 2013 and beyond?

The answers are unclear beyond rote speculation, but one thing is certain: absent Sean Payton in 2013, the Saints' lackluster results in 2012 might be less fleeting and more defining than any of us cares to accept.

By The Numbers: The 2012 Saints Through 12 Games

2012-12-07T09:35:00.000-06:00

After twelve games, here are the Saints' league-wide ranks in a variety of statistical categories.

Arrows indicate mobility since week eight; adjustments reflect league ranking, not raw statistical output. Numbers italicized in parentheses indicate previous ranking after eight games.

Offense
* Points/game: 5th ↑ (8th)
* First half points scored: 3rd ↑ (4th)
* Second half points scored: 12th --same--
* Red zone scoring % (TDs): 1st --same--

* Yards: 6th ↓ (5th)
* Yards/play: 3rd (t) ↑ (6th)
* 3rd down conversion %: 5th ↑ (7th)

* Rush yards/game: 26th ↑ (30th)
* Rush yards/attempt: 9th (t) ↑ (17th)
* Rush play %: 31st ↑ (32nd)

* Pass yards: 3rd ↓ (2nd)
* Pass yards/attempt: 6th (t) ↑ (7th)

* Point differential: 15th ↑ (16th)

* DVOA: 9th ↓ (7th)
* WPA: 14th ↓ (10th)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Defense
* Points allowed/game: 26th ↑ (29th)
* First half points allowed: 32nd --same--
* Second half points allowed: 12th ↑ (25th )
* Red zone scoring % allowed (TDs): 16th ↓ (15th)

* Yards allowed: 32nd --same--
* Yards allowed/play: 32nd --same--
* 3rd down conversion % allowed: 11th ↑ (13th)

* Rush yards allowed: 32nd --same--
* Rush yards allowed/attempt: 32nd ↓ (31st)

* Pass yards allowed: 30th ↓ (29th)
* Pass yards allowed/attempt: 31st --same--

* DVOA: 30th --same--
* WPA: 30th ↑ (32nd)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Assorted
* Turnover Margin: 10th (t) ↑ (11th)
* Penalties: 13th (t) ↓ (12th)
* Passer rating differential: 21st ↑ (22nd)

Drive Stats
* Offense
- Average starting field position: 29th ↑ (32nd)
- Drive success rate: 3rd ↑ (6th)
- Points/drive: 4th ↑ (5th)

* Defense
- Average starting field position: 19th --same--
- Drive success rate: 32nd ↓ (31st)
- Points allowed/drive: 26th ↑ (30th)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Special Teams
* Thomas Morstead
- Punting, gross average: 2nd (50) ↓ (1st [51.2])
- Punting, net average: 1st (45.9) --same-- (1st [46.1])

* Kickoff returns: 5th ↑ (9th)
* Punt returns: 19th (tie) ↑ (23rd)
* DVOA: 8th ↑ (16th)

Week 13, Saints at Falcons: The Gallows Pole

2012-11-30T10:24:00.000-06:00

First, the stats.

Score: Falcons 23, Saints 13
Record: 5-7
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

THE GALLOWS POLE

In retrospect, it couldn't have ended any other way.

After a nightmarish calendar year for Saints' football, it was only fitting that the Saints took a killshot in the Georgia Dome against the fraudulent Falcons, on a night where Drew Brees, for the second straight week, submarined the team with an unrecognizable performance, and thus bookended this horror show that started 11 months ago with the playoff loss in San Francisco. Two rivals, two seasons, two bitter losses.

This was a perfectly deflating way to bring the strife and the frustration and the injustice and the shortcomings of 2012 all full circle.

A disaster in whole.

It started back in January with the Saints as the hottest team in the league--winners of nine straight--rolling into San Francisco against one of their longtime rivals, a team that haunted my adolescence with their mostly effortless domination of the Saints. This was a time to make it right, but that never happened. When the Saints shit the bed, when they lost that game in heartbreakingly cruel fashion, I never imagined there was a lower point for the franchise this year.

But it's been a continual erosion since, from the heights of championship aspiration, tantalizingly out of reach early in 2012, to a lifeless swing from the gallows pole late in the year, as the team's fortunes have reversed in grotesque fashion.

In Atlanta last night, the Falcons all but destroyed the Saints' playoffs hopes for 2012 and sealed what was likely the Saints' inescapable fate this season.

For it to be at the hands of a different team seems almost averse to script. Where January in San Francisco was vicious and portending, yesterday in Atlanta was ephemerally stunning but mostly just sad.

In between those two games came BountyGate, a sinister episode of devilish proportion, one that dragged the team and its fanbase through a series of damning events that are still yet to be decided.

It is BountyGate that compounds the sting of these losses, and serves as a continuing reminder of what could have been. What should have been. The scars of BountyGate will remain in perpetuity, but the freshness of the wounds manifests a sting that cruelly reminds us that this was once a championship-worthy contender, suddenly and savagely chopped down at the knees in a hollow, transparent, bullshit Goodellian show of force.

On a damn near weekly basis, there's an episodic feeling of being wholly wronged by the NFL, for them having taken from us what we earned from years of love and loyalty and undying hope: a championship contender, year in and year out.

When the Saints finally transcended failure and futility, the NFL reached out and snatched it from us in a diabolical blame-shifting maneuver. And it is both enraging and terribly sad.

Roger Goodell, that bilious, vile shell of a human being, committed a devilish act of unforgivable magnitude against the Saints and their fans and for that, we should never forget. Fuck him.

DREW BREES

In what is likely to be an omnipresent series of articles wondering "What's wrong with Drew Brees?", here's one person's opinion. Brees is a man stretched much too thin, who finally froze and cracked under the thunderous pressure of 2012.

Since 2006 Brees has gone from a boyish gym rat to a husband and father of three; the NFL's highest paid player; the face and voice of the NFL's Players' Association; BountyGate's most outspoken critic; a businessman; a ubiquitous corporate sponsor; a genuine philanthropist; and the face of the Saints franchise and the New Orleans community.

And finally, it was too much for him to handle. Last night Brees shattered into a million dulled shards in front of our eyes, in a performance as shocking as it was bad.

courtesy of USA Today

A spectacular unraveling.

At this point in his career, with his skills and achievements and high standards, Brees aimlessly staggered into uncharted territory last night.

After two weeks of debilitating decisions on the field, when the Saints' hopes hung by a baring thread, this bizarro version of Brees was devastating in all the wrong ways.

It was his teammates who held up their ends of the bargain, and Brees who shuttered victory.

It would be silly to think that Brees is immune to failure, that he and he alone can elevate the Saints from the depths of their shortcomings, but when your contract consumes nine digits, when the team, by and large, puts its eggs all in one basket, it is that person's responsibility to deliver on that trust and expectation.

When Brees so centrally impacts outcomes, he is fair game for praise and criticism alike. He doesn't get "Breesus" unconditionally. It comes with the territory. It's not so much that Brees played a couple of bad games. It's how and when he did it. And because it's unlike him to do so, and so foreign for us to experience, the magnitude of that failure is greatly amplified, especially when it's connected to the events of 2012 in composite. It's a fitting footnote to the season.

This isn't to be ungrateful for everything Brees has done for the Saints' organization; that should go without saying. It's only to say that Brees, like every other player on the Saints' roster, is subject to a rational criticism when he comes up short.

I'm sure Brees will rebound and finish the season on a strong note. That is his wont. My hope is that he'll be reunited with Sean Payton, a coach that can both ground and guide Brees most effectively, and relieve from him the pressure of being all things to all people. It's as unrealistic as it is unsustainable.

Which finally leads us to ...

SEAN PAYTON

If there was ever a one-week stretch where the effects of Sean Payton's absence were so clearly illustrated, this was it. To examine in detail the varied situations where Payton would have, likely, made all the difference would be a pointless meandering.

His importance is beyond dispute, and it was absurd and delusional for me to think the Saints would be contenders without him.

Payton's return to New Orleans, while uncertain at this point, is essential if the Saints harbor legitimate championship aspirations in the coming years. With him, a return to normalcy is likely. Without him, the prospects are much less clear.

It is Payton who has unearthed and maximized the talents of countless players: Brees, Colston, Moore, Graham, PT, Ivory, and a host of other players. These players are representative of Payton's core strengths, and it feels like I've taken for granted what Payton has built in total.

It is much more than being the NFL's best playcaller and offensive mind. That is but a small, though important, piece.

It's equally about his organizational infrastructure, his eye for talent, his ability to relate and motivate, his willingness to risk and think unconventionally, and his unrivaled competitive nature. Many of these elements have gone missing this season, and it's no surprise their absence has resulted in more losses than wins through 13 weeks.

If 2012 stands to be but an unfortunate detour on an otherwise rewarding journey, Payton's return in 2013 is essential.

Let us hope.

Week 12, Saints vs 49ers: Domino Theory

2012-11-26T08:20:00.000-06:00

First, the stats:

Score: 49ers 31, Saints 21
Record: 5-6
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

DOMINO THEORY

A traumatic flashback.

That's mostly what yesterday's game elicited.

The symmetry between Sunday's loss to the 49ers and January's painful divisional round playoff loss was agonizingly similar, and the 49er-associated miseries of this year, and of many years gone past, only deepened.

Like Pierre Thomas' fumble on the two-yard line in last season's playoffs, Brees' first-half interception set in motion a chain of events the Saints proved incapable of recovering from.

Last year it was a fumble that culminated in the loss of a key offensive cog, an opening drive that produced no points after a methodical march, a long TD surrendered to Vernon Davis, a Brees interception, another 49ers TD, a Roby fumble on the ensuing kickoff, a subsequent 49ers' FG, and the resulting 17-0 hole the Saints couldn't emerge from. Remember all of that? Ouch.

That's why yesterday's loss hurt so much, and probably in disproportionate measures: because it tore open a wound that's still not fully healed.

On Sunday, it was Brees throwing one of the most dispiriting, ill-timed interceptions I can recall. After handling the 49ers for much of the first half, and with a chance to take a double-digit lead into halftime of a game the Saints' home crowd was increasingly impacting, Brees giftwrapped a stunning equalizer and stabilized a woozy team previously backing into the ropes.

In the span of the next three minutes, the 49ers scored twice more, once on the second half's opening drive, and yet again on a Brees' pick-six. 21 points allowed in under four minutes. Brutal.

When you combine that with the sudden reversal of the Saints' optimal strategy of playing with a lead, to being forced to battle back against the league's best defense, it was another domino effect that proved too onerous to overcome, and one that prolonged the agony of that recent playoff loss.

An odious doppelganger, if you will.

And one that we should, finally, bury in all of its hideous revulsion.

As much as I'd like to write this game off as the Saints being outplayed by a superior team--much like I did after the Denver game a few weeks back--I can't bring myself to do it because I just don't believe that.

This was a self-inflicted loss, one heavily weighted by poor decision-making by the Saints' best player on two different occasions. While the Saints might be well capable of beating San Francisco any given week, the fact is that the Saints gave it away yesterday, just like they gave it away last January. And now they're in the tightest of spots with five games to play.

LOOKING FORWARD

The good news? Yes, there is some of that. It wasn't all bad yesterday because the entirety of the Saints' wild card competition lost: Seattle, Dallas, Tampa, Minnesota, and even Green Bay.

With five games left, the Saints are still one game back and right in the thick of things. Getting into the postseason probably means rattling off five straight wins, but 4-1 over the next five might still be good enough to do it.

There were enough positive signs yesterday to reinforce the notion that the Saints are continuing to improve, and still getting closer to playing their best football of the season. Winning five straight isn't out of the question, but it will take smart football and a little bit of luck.

It all starts with Atlanta on Thursday night. Why should we be confident for victory on a short week, on the heels of an incredibly physical game, against a 10-1 team?

1.) History: the Saints are 11-2 against the Falcons since 2006, and the Falcons have repeatedly proven adept at coming up short in big spots.

2.) Desperation: though it might not truly be the case, it feels like the Saints are playing for their season on Thursday. Time to pull out all the stops.

3.) Depth: the Saints can materially benefit from the depth of their RB rotation this week. Because the Saints' RBs share the workload so widely, the rotation should be less impacted by the short week and ready to exploit the Falcons' soft run defense.

4.) Brees: coming off of poor performances in which the Saints have lost (I identified 23 games), Brees has been pretty damn good. His passer rating is a combined 99.5 in those games; he's averaged 283 yards, 7.3 ypa, and 69% completions with a 2.7:1 TD:INT ratio.

The Saints are 15-8 in those games.

Further, in 13 career games against the Falcons as a Saint, Brees has a 99.8 passer rating; he's averaged 295 yards, 7.7 ypa, and 67.4% completions with a 2.4:1 TD:INT ratio.

All signs point towards Brees playing a good game on Thursday night, which usually means good things for the Saints. Let's not give up just yet.

Don't fret. The loss to San Francisco was by no means devastating to the Saints' playoff hopes, and the season starts anew in just three days.

It's time for the Saints' $100 million man to, in his own words, go out there and earn it.

Week 11, Saints at Raiders: Can't You Hear Me Knocking?

2012-11-19T08:46:00.000-06:00

First, the stats.

Score: Saints 38, Raiders 17
Record: 5-5
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

CAN'T YOU HEAR ME KNOCKING?

courtesy of Getty

Quick.

Who’s the hottest team in the NFC?

If you guessed the Saints, winners of five of their last six and three straight, then you’d be right.

All of a sudden, at 5-5, with a head of billowing steam, an emerging identity, and a reinvigorated purpose, the Saints have arrived, just in the nick of time, to kick in the back door of a party nobody wants them attending.

Knock knock, bitches.

Just when we were ready to shovel dirt on this thing after the debacle in Denver, the Saints have reeled off three quality wins to claw back to .500 and, equally important, climb one game back of a wildcard spot with six games to play. Seattle, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay sit at 6-4, with the Saints lurking dangerously in the shadows at 5-5.

Hold the fucking phones.

This thing’s just getting started.

Hear me prowlin

Im gonna take you down

Hear me growlin ...

Hear me howlin

And all, all around your street now

Hear me knockin

And all, all around your town

In four weeks, Joe Vitt has transformed a largely tentative, passive team—one marked by an unsightly, delicate finesse—and infused it with a purposeful, salty disdain.

Absent is the rudderless wandering for identity and adjustments, and present is a clear-minded, physical philosophy.

We all realize that Vitt can’t replicate Sean Payton’s quick-mindedness and innovative scheming. But Vitt has been every bit Payton's equal when it comes to leading the team, in providing them with an attitude and an intensity. Further, the stage isn’t too big for him. Right now, Vitt's presence alone counts for a lot.

His players have responded accordingly, and the results speak for themselves.

Maybe I’m just seeing things, but there’s a definitive attitude shift, one familiar with Payton’s presence: a swagger, a defiance, a willfulness, an overwhelming confidence. Vitt’s bestowed it on the team just like Payton did, and it is infectious.

That mindset has manifested itself in a running game that’s produced 140+ yards in three consecutive games, in a defense that’s turning the ball over and pressuring the QB with more regularity, and in a team that’s won three straight by an average margin of 13 points.

Mark Ingram looks, more or less, better than he ever has. It might have taken Ingram a season and a half, but the light's been turned on. Much like CJ Spiller in Buffalo who wallowed for a season-and-a-half, underwhelming and battling the “bust” label before breaking out, Ingram appears to be blooming late and proving his worth.

With Ingram’s development and Chris Ivory’s ascendance—not to mention the presence of PT, Sproles, and Cadet—the Saints are in possession of an unfathomably deep and talented backfield, one capable of carrying the offense if need be. The runningbacks' involvement has shifted from a Sproles/PT-centered model, one reliant on draws, screens, tosses, and misdirections, and has been re-engineered as a more traditional power rushing attack featuring Ivory and Ingram. Sledge and Dredge, if you will.

This defining physical element, combined with the well-established primacy of the Saints’ passing game, has vaulted the Saints right back into contention. It's not exactly the nuclear offense of 2011, but it's come together pretty damn well at this point.

The defense, too, hasn't been bereft of a worthy contribution of its own recently.

Where's this coming from?

I don't really know, but having Vilma back on the field seems to be making a positive difference.

If it's only for his ability to properly organize the defense and check into audibles, then that's an enormous benefit.

Just being in the right set/formation is, you know, really important.

More, Malcolm Jenkins' inconsistency seems to be receding in favor of hawkishness, and he's played two consecutive excellent games.

Whether this will continue for the remainder of the season is anybody's guess, but we might be on the cusp of witnessing an upward trajectory in Jenkins' career.

Equally important is that the front-seven has finally asserted itself. Yesterday it did so to the tune of three sacks, four hits on Carson Palmer, and four tackles for losses. This on the heels of seven sacks, eleven hits on Michael Vick, and eight tackles for losses against Philadelphia; and one sack, five hits on Matt Ryan, and four tackles for losses against Atlanta.

Signs of improvement, indeed.

After starting 0-4, it would have been a lost cause for most other teams. But Drew Brees and the Saints aren't a team that convention can quickly shoehorn into futility, and the 5-1 stretch has both provided some hope and illuminated the Saints' talent and resolve.

They’ve rattled off winning streaks—consistently—during the past three seasons, and it’s happening again now. Will they sustain it?

While the pundits discount the Saints’ chances and focus on how difficult their upcoming schedule is—and sure, it is—they all miss the larger point that it’s the Saints who are now presenting the difficult matchups.

We’ve all paid close attention to the Saints' recent winning trends. Do you really think the Saints, right now, are anything less than confident that they’re winning the next game on the schedule?

Maybe that’s what it will take to really set this fucker ablaze and put the league on notice: exacting some much-needed revenge on the grating 49ers, the NFC’s self-appointed, tough-guy contender.

If the Saints really are going to kick down that door, if we’re really going all storybook with it this year, then a statement win against San Francisco is next on the docket.

It’s an imperative.

Week 10, Falcons at Saints: No Sympathy for the Devil

2012-11-12T07:57:00.000-06:00

First, the stats.

Final Score: Saints 31, Falcons 27
Record: 4-5
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

NO SYMPATHY FOR THE DEVIL

You want to know the difference between the present-day Falcons and Saints?

Matt Ryan has a career-best day and the Falcons lose.

When Brees has a career day? The Saints beat the NFL's model franchise by three touchdowns.

Nowhere is the dichotomy between the two organizations more indicative than at the quarterback position. We've seen it for the past several seasons, and we saw it again yesterday.

Even when Ryan's at his best, it's still not good enough.

Try as the Falcons might to convince themselves they've "made the leap" (or whatever), the reality is that they're a lot like the Hasselbeck-era Seahawks. They're good enough to get it done against inferior competition, but not quite tough enough to win when it really matters.

When you strip away everything else, Matt Ryan's on the path to being the Bobby Hebert to Drew Brees' Joe Montana. Until Falcons' fans grasp and accept this, they'll continue to bear the torturous brunt of coulda-woulda-shoulda.

We've been there already. They might be wise to heed the precedent. Deep down Falcons' fans probably realize this, as difficult as it might be to admit.

Come on, now. If there was ever a time for the Falcons to solve the Saints' riddle, to heal the lingering wounds of repeated beatings past, yesterday was the day. An 8-0 Falcons' "juggernaut" facing their hamstrung and coachless division rival; benefiting from a career day from their QB; jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first six minutes; and yet still ... They. Just. Couldn't. Do. It.

What else can you ask for, for god's sake?

While we're at it, let's go ahead and get this out of the way: we need to stop calling this a rivalry. It requires another name. "Rivalry" implies something other than the consistent losing ways the Falcons have exhibited in this series. For the past six-and-a-half seasons, it's been utter domination by the Saints.

11-2.

Had it not been for Garrett Hartley boning a 29-yard FG in overtime in 2010, the Falcons would have one lone, sad little victory to show for their efforts in this "rivalry" since Payton arrived.

The funny thing is that the Saints haven't consistently dominated another team so completely, ever. The fact that it's the Falcons, and that one team has aligned itself among the NFL's elite, while the other desperately attempts to convince itself it will get there, makes the end results all the more resplendent.

Imitation only gets you so far.

The Falcons can say it all they want, they can feign it as convincingly as possible, but until they topple the Saints, until they emerge from the NFC, and until they lift the Lombardi, they'll be nothing more than striving, second-rate wannabes.

In the meantime? We (still) make the rules.

THE IVORY EFFECT

I don't know if Aaron Kromer will eventually be an NFL head coach or not.

But if not, it won't just be because he guided the Saints to a 2-4 record in the six games he coached.

It will be because he was too stubborn or too shortsighted to play Chris Ivory.

That Kromer would overlook this proven talent, and further forgo Ivory's tenacity--a missing element that begged for inclusion--won't go unnoticed when it comes to Kromer's future prospects as a head coach.

The fact that Kromer coordinates the running game makes it all the more glaringly faulty.

What Ivory provides is an ingredient vital to the Saints' optimal, winning offensive identity: a physical, bruising rushing presence. It was there in 2006 with Deuce, in 2009 with Mike "PUT ON THE CLEATS!" Bell, and with Ingram/Ivory in 2011. When Ingram proved incapable of providing it in the first few games, Kromer was decidedly slow on the uptake.

Failure to make proper adjustments in the NFL often results in plain, old failure, and Kromer's refusal to play Ivory might (unfortunately) be the legacy of his six-game stint.

With Ivory these past two games, the Saints' offense has unleashed the added dimension that's been integral to their success under Payton.

We can all debate the merits of balance--or ponder what that term even means in relation to the Saints--but the truth is that when the Saints run the ball effectively, when they merge rushing purpose with passing finesse, they are an offense unstoppable. At this point, what more evidence do we need?

Further, what we might be witnessing under Joe Vitt is an offensive identity modestly in transition, at least for this season. With the embarrassingly rich collection of talented RBs the Saints possess, it would be neglectful (or just dumb) to limit their involvement and the matchup quagmires they present.

If that means figuring out how to distribute the ball among four RBs, then I'm sure Brees and Carmichael are more than capable. If it means that Mark Ingram feels threatened by Ivory's presence, and that he'll continue to play as well as he has recently, then something worthwhile is underway.

If it means a handful fewer targets for ~~JG80~~ Jimmy Graham, and perhaps more subsequent single coverage, then maybe that's a good thing. If it means Joe Morgan's deep speed will be a distant concern for opposing defenses, then the Saints' offense will be in better shape.

Regardless, what we can all agree on is that the Saints are a better team with Ivory's physical presence, and a more complete offense with the RBs involved in the game. For the first time this season, the Saints outrushed their opponent and for the second consecutive game, they've rushed for 140+ yards.

With Vitt settling in for the final seven games, the offense just might be onto something.

As of today, the Saints are 1.5 games back of the last wildcard spot with seven games to play. After an 0-4 start, just being in the conversation is good enough. Let's leave it at that for right now.

Not only is it much too early to worry with the future possibilities, it would be criminal to not spend the week enjoying this win and reveling in the continued dominance.

Good times never seemed so good.

By the Numbers: The 2012 Saints Through Eight Games

2012-11-08T22:07:00.001-06:00

After eight games, here are the Saints' league-wide ranks in a variety of statistical categories.

Arrows indicate mobility since week four; adjustments reflect league ranking, not raw statistical output. Numbers italicized in parentheses indicate previous ranking after four games.

Offense
* Points/game: 8th ↑ (10th)
* First half points scored: 4th ↑ (10th)
* Second half points scored: 12th ↓ (7th)
* Red zone scoring % (TDs): 1st ↑ (3rd)

* Yards: 5th ↑ (8th)
* Yards/play: 6th ↑ (7th)
* 3rd down conversion %: 7th ↑ (9th)

* Rush yards/game: 30th ↓ (26th)
* Rush yards/attempt: 17th ↓ (9th)
* Rush play %: 32nd --same-- (32nd)

* Pass yards: 2nd ↑ (3rd)
* Pass yards/attempt: 7th (tie) ↑ (14th)

* Point differential: 16th

* DVOA: 7th ↑ (11th)
* WPA: 10th ↑ (20th)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Defense
* Points allowed/game: 29th (tie) --same-- (29th)
* First half points allowed: 32nd ↓ (31st)
* Second half points allowed: 25th ↑ (26th)
* Red zone scoring % allowed (TDs): 15th ↓ (14th)

* Yards allowed: 32nd --same--  (32nd)
* Yards allowed/play: 32nd ↓ (30th)
* 3rd down conversion % allowed: 13th ↑ (19th)

* Rush yards allowed: 32nd --same--  (32nd)
* Rush yards allowed/attempt: 31st ↓ (30th)

* Pass yards allowed: 29th ↓ (24th)
* Pass yards allowed/attempt: 31st ↓ (30th)

* DVOA: 30th ↓ (28th)
* EPA: 32nd --same--  (32nd)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Assorted
* Turnover Margin (0): 11th (tie) ↓ (8th)
* Penalties: 12th ↑ (27th)
* Passer rating differential: 22nd ↑ (27th)

Drive Stats
* Offense
- Average starting field position: 32nd ↓ (28th)
- Drive success rate: 6th ↑ (9th)
- Points/drive: 5th ↑ (10th)

* Defense
- Average starting field position: 19th ↑ (22nd)
- Drive success rate: 31st ↓ (29th)
- Points allowed/drive: 30th ↓ (29th)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Special Teams
* Thomas Morstead
- Punting, gross average: 1st (51.2) ↑ (3rd [51.1])
- Punting, net average: 1st (46.1) ↑ (3rd [45.9])

* Kickoff returns: 9th ↓ (7th)
* Punt returns: 23rd ↓ (21st)
* DVOA: 16th --same-- (16th)

Week 9, Eagles at Saints: Strange Magic

2012-11-06T12:12:00.000-06:00

First, the stats.

Final Score: Saints 28, Eagles 13
Record: 3-5
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

STRANGE MAGIC

Maybe Steve Spagnuolo is yet to find that magic wand he keeps talking about, but he and Pete Carmichael summoned some strange magic on Monday night and provided a glimpse of promise for the season's second half.

It was a throwback primetime performance, just a week after the Saints were pasted and embarrassed in Denver.

So what happened? The Saints' defense was hostile enough to shut out the Eagles in five red zone trips and produce a vaunted, adjusted PTOMAC™ of +6.

Seven sacks, twelve QB hits, and eight tackles for loss? Well I'll be damned.

Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma dusted off their vintage 2009 forms and helped the Saints stay one game back in the loss column for the last wild card spot. Imagine that: Vilma and Smith, staving off suspensions, helping the Saints hang around for another week. So go ahead commish, take a moment and suck on that, why don't you?

Cam Jordan played (I think) his best game as a professional, and continues a steady upward trajectory after a season and a half of NFL football. All's not lost.

Though the Eagles' offensive line appeared staggeringly insufficient, the Saints' front seven (dare I say?) dominated them. That's all that really matters right now. There's proper perspective to be accounted for, but the Saints' defense flashed some signs last night. Even if it was for just one game, it was a welcomed sight. Kill The Head and all that.

There's ... CLICHE WARNING! ... something to build on.

In a similar vein, the offense looked like a different, better unit against the Eagles. Last night's gameplan and overall efficiency, combined with the explosive capacity displayed two weeks ago in Tampa, shows that the offense is close to finally putting it all together.

It couldn't come at a better time with the villainous Falcons coming to New Orleans in a few days.

What's strange about those two previously mentioned offensive performances? In the two games that the offense has looked its best, they've been without Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles respectively.

Presumably, this has forced Carmichael to re-think his gameplans and take an approach that's not heavily centered on the offense's two best playmakers.

In the recent past, the Saints' offense has defined itself through its incredible diversity and shared-wealth philosophy. At times this season, it's seemed like the offense has strayed from that concept because of the immense playmaking capabilities of Graham and Sproles, and thus lulled the offense into predictability and stagnation at times.

Added to that is that opposing defenses are better prepared to defend Sproles and Graham after digesting a year's worth of :gamefilm: on their roles in the Saints' offense.

Without Graham in Tampa, Lance Moore and Joe Morgan were more prominently involved and heavily contributory. Last night without Sproles, the Saints employed a more traditional power rushing attack with efficient games from PT, Ivory, and Ingram.

That Philadelphia was likely not fully prepared for this approach reveals the significance of the creative scheming and diversity that's been lacking without Payton calling the shots.

This isn't to suggest--at all--that the Saints' offense is better off without Graham and Sproles. Of course it's not. But it is to say that, without them, Carmichael has designed his most effective gameplans.

Ideally, the recognition of this--creativity, diversity, unpredictability--will help the offense finally put together a string of 2011-ish offensive performances when Sproles returns. A fully healthy offensive squad, plus gameplanning more varied and less reliant on two players, will help the Saints make a run in these last eight games.

They're not out of this thing just quite yet, so stay tuned. There have been plenty of moments of despair this year, but there's still a little beam of hope bouncing off the walls of this dark cave of a season.

And really, the timing couldn't be any better with the Falcons coming to town. The Saints are fresh off their best win of the season and have won three of four after a disastrous start.

All of a sudden, it feels like their confidence is soaring as the hated, undefeated Falcons come strutting in. A statement win next weekend will make this strangest of seasons all that more compelling.

Week 8, Saints at Broncos: A Graying Promise

2012-10-29T09:35:00.000-05:00

First, the stats.

Final Score: Broncos 34, Saints 14

Record: 2-5

Complete Box Score

Stat Chart:

A GRAYING PROMISE

When we look back on the disappointment that is 2012 Saints' football, when we accept a reality that's birthed a suddenness of irreversible mediocrity, we'll look back on this game as a signpost in the post-BountyGate, Payton-less Saints.

This was a thrashing in primetime, a stage the Saints have largely dominated the past three years. Once facile at serving up momentous, definitive beatdowns while the football world watched in unison, the Saints found themselves squarely on the receiving, pummeled end last night.

It was all too likely.

This was a game in which each of the Saints' lingering, fetid sores were savagely exposed, left to fester and ooze, their unsightliness stark and recoiling: the inability to produce a semblance of resistance; a staggering virus of drops; the continued failure to run the ball; an incapacity for in-game adjustments; and an unwillingness to tackle all crystallized in a signature loss.

Worse, the futility of it all reinforced the dripping anguish that's soaked the Saints' franchise since San Francisco in late January. It's been a slippery slope of collapse, a precipitous fall from the heights of championship aspiration, and one can only hope this is the low point and recovery is at hand.

The bigger issue is that this team wouldn't be anything other than average even with Sean Payton in the fold. There's just no way to elevate beyond mediocrity--at best--when your team's defense is so bad that words can't properly articulate its spectacular dysfunction and historic marks for futility pale in comparison.

It's easy to convince oneself that 2012 is a lost season, to chalk up the misery to the collective forces of outside influence, to await a return to glory in 2013, but that would be to blind oneself to the fact that the Saints' roster needs help. It's no longer a plug-and-win scenario when Sean Payton returns.

This is an aged, talentless defense devoid of a functional scheme that's in dire need of a complete overhaul. That's abundantly clear at this point. Spagnuolo might continue to receive the benefit of the doubt for inheriting a bad defense in the middle of unprecedented turmoil, but that doesn't alter the fact that he's made the absolute worst of it. How else do you explain the historic futility? In fact, the defense seems to be getting progressively worse, if that's even possible.

Yes, it's just one loss. But it seems like more than that; it feels like the inevitable coalescing of numerous shortcomings, all distilled into an unfamiliar, damning portrait of reality.

When you combine the state of the defense with looming salary cap restrictions and an aging roster, there's no guarantee that Payton's return will be an all-encompassing panacea. And that's ok. We just shouldn't assume a restored order at this point. If the team is in the midst of graying promise, then that's an acceptable transition. The difficulty, for me at least, is in turning away from the denials and rationalizations, and embracing reality.

If I've learned one thing from this season, it's that objective expectations are hard to come by. 2013 and beyond are complicated by myriad factors and the return of Sean Payton won't magically solve each of them. As for me, I am going to hope but not expect.

There's probably still another Lombardi out there for the Brees' era Saints, but whereas a year ago it seemed like a given, it now feels a lot more remote.

For the remainder of 2012 at least, the victories will come in different forms. Remember, there's still plenty of fun to be had this year. We might as well get started having it.

Week 7, Saints at Bucs: The Arrival of Big Poppa

2012-10-22T10:13:00.000-05:00

First, the stats.

Final Score: Saints 35, Bucs 28

Record: 2-4

Complete Box Score

Stat Chart:

THE ARRIVAL OF BIG POPPA

You know what was encouraging? Yesterday's game looked a lot like 2011, and the seasonal timing coincides similarly to the beginning of last season's nine-game winning streak.

There is hope yet.

The best news was that for a large part of the game, the 2011 offense returned: getting down two scores, and then rattling off 28 consecutive points in a blinding flurry of Brees' wizardry. It was beautiful.

Didn't we all know what was coming at the end of the first half when the FOX cameras panned to Garrett Hartley on the sideline? Dick Stockton was droning on about the Saints moving the ball into FG range before half. And we were all like, "uh, no." This is TD range, dude.

To that point, Brees had already rendered the Bucs' secondary withered and limp, and you just knew another TD was coming.

Finger roll.

That's how it felt last season. Every game down the stretch in 2011 was sprinkled with that magic dust of victorious inevitability, and for awhile yesterday, it felt just like that again. Remember all the close games the Saints escaped from last year? Houston, Carolina, Atlanta, Tennessee. 13-3 probably didn't come as easily as we remember it.

Yesterday was a lot like that. It was terrifying and maddening at times, but they got it done.

That's the Lance Moore I remember. That's the Joe Morgan we've been hoping for, the one who brings the nuclear option to the offense. That was the offensive line of recent yore, keeping Brees clean and allowing him to scavenge and bewilder.

It wasn't a complete game for the offense, but it was damn close. Keep that up, and the Saints will be back in this thing. Really, the only disappointing part of the offense's contribution was their inability to stomp the Bucs' throat sometime during the late third/early fourth quarters.

Now that was a Payton signature. Putting the bad guys away. Surgically and effortlessly bleeding them out before they ever saw escape as a viable hope. Yesterday? That was the little (big) piece that was missing.

Carmichael couldn't properly fit into his executioner's mask, and as the season goes along, he seems in desperate need of that devil on his shoulder in the form of Sean Payton. The Walter White to his Jesse Pinkman.

As for the defense, I think we know what we're in for by now. 513 yards? 7.5 yards per play? Josh Freeman dusting off his Warren Moon circa-1990 form?

Save for a handful of plays here and there, it hasn't gotten any better by and large.

Week by painful week, Gregg Williams looks smarter and smarter doesn't he?

There was a moment of clarity with Spagnuolo in that game, a stupid little metaphor that seemed revelatory: Spags wandering the sidelines, squinting into the sun's oppressive glare, his reddened face relentlessly pummeled by the heat.

Yet there were no sunglasses, no hat, no visor. Nothing. Just butt naked vulnerability. It seemed fitting.

For all his flaws, bad angles, and generally chaotic style, Malcolm Jenkins significantly impacted the game with just one play, all on sheer effort.

Along with Joe Morgan's mindbogglingly rewatchable TD reception, we very likely got the two signature plays of the Saints' 2012 season yesterday.

We can bitch and moan all we want, but these guys care. And giving up isn't on the menu of options. That counts for something. Jenkins might never evolve into the player I've hoped he'd become, but he has a knack for making big plays periodically. His play vacillates wildly between the extremes, and if the coaches can help him locate a middle ground, he might finally get there.

His physical skills surely aren't lacking.

Lastly, and most important, let's give an affirmative nod to Akiem "Big Poppa" Hicks. :yes:

throw your hands in the ay-er ... if yous a true playa

For all the memorable plays in yesterday's game, I'll probably remember it for Akiem Hicks' arrival as a big time player.

It's been a long while, but all appearances point to Hicks being a true standout. This dude is going to be a monster, and as has been pointed out numerous places, he made his mark on the goal line stand yesterday. It was the impressive, defining moment of the infantile stage of his pro career.

Since preseason, virtually every time Hicks has been given a chance, he's made the most of it. When all the pundits say he's "raw," they're right but they're missing the bigger point. You don't keep a talented, impactful player off the field because he hasn't yet neared his immense ceiling. Anybody remember Jimmy Graham in 2010? Into the fire you go, young man.

They can't keep Hicks off the field any longer. The quicker he develops, the better the defense will be. The same philosophy holds true for Martez Wilson and Junior Gallette.

In the meantime, if the defense continues to push the envelope of futility, at least they're developing the young players who'll be front and center in the next few years.

And maybe, just maybe, they'll help the Saints' defense turn it around in time to salvage the 2012 season.

The Many Lies of BountyGate

2012-10-12T07:48:00.001-05:00

One Head, Affected

Let's take a short moment to review the cascade of bullshit that's rained down on us since BountyGate's inception. There's a whole lotta lying going on these days.

After spending too many months outraged and angry, I'll attempt to keep this as lighthearted as possible. It's Friday, after all.

If you're interested in reviewing the flaccid state of the NFL's evidence in detail, then go here and here. If you want a broader commentary on BountyGate, then read this.

In the meantime, below is a quick review of the NFL's mendacious machinations along the way.

Here goes:

March 2nd: The NFL accused the Saints of running a three-year "bounty program funded primarily by players." By May 2nd, the NFL amended its terminology to more broadly read "pay for performance/bounty program." On September 12th, in his words, Goodell said plainly "there was a bounty." You mean, just one? Not a three-year program? (See 2:05 of the linked clip.)

March 2nd: Jonathan Vilma was accused of placing a $10k bounty on Brett Favre. On May 2nd, Vilma vehemently denied, in WTFOMG ALL CAPS, offering the bounty.

June 18th: The NFL produced a transcription of a shady handwritten note that indicated a $35k bounty on Favre, including a pledged contribution from Joe Vitt. So wait, was it $10k or $35k? And was it offered by Vilma or other people or what? Don't worry, though, they've cleared it all up for us lowly peons who have trouble following all the lies. On October 9th, the NFL declared Vilma was responsible for the bounty "in the specific amount of $10,000." You see, "specific." They're on it, fellas. It's all on the up-and-up now.

After the handwritten note surfaced on June 18th, Vitt denied pledging the aforementioned money. The NFL eventually cleared him of the accusation on June 20th. But remember everybody, the handwritten note is clear-cut, legitimate, damning evidence. Even though it says Vitt pledged $5k to something called a "QB out pool" and even though the NFL said he did/but then didn't offer that $5k, the handwritten note is the smoking gun. Clearly we should all trust Mike Cerullo's recollection of what might have occurred, as well as his noble intent. The note itself? See it transcribed in section 10 here.

March 12th: Anthony Hargrove is first mentioned for demanding payment of the Favre bounty on the sideline during the NFC Championship game. On June 19th, Hargrove adamantly denied he said "pay me my money." With "absolute certainty," Hargrove declared he said nothing of the sort. A day later on June 20th, a former Saints' teammate backed Hargrove.

I like this next one a lot. This takes some serious balls. On May 3rd, hired gun Mary Jo White said Anthony Hargrove "acknowledged that the program existed [and] acknowledged his participation" in it. But uhhh, oops? On May 7th, Hargrove's actual declaration leaked, in which Hargrove "denied knowledge of any bounty or any program." Nothing to see here, folks. Forget this even happened.

June 1st: The newfangled "bounty ledger" (OOH SO OFFICIAL!) indicated three payments (that's all? only three?) made for "cart-offs" in the 2009 Bills game. But that was quickly debunked, so the NFL amended their report to say it was actually the 2009 Panthers' game. But you know, that was also debunked by multiple sources. Well shit.

So upon re-issuing player sanctions on October 9th, the NFL then claimed it was actually the 2010 Panthers game. Of course. We know that's what you meant all along, guys. Honest oversight, I'm sure. Must be tough keeping up with all 50,000 pages.

The problem, though? The three players who departed with injury--Jonathan Stewart, Matt Moore, and Tyrell Sutton--all left the game due to clean, legal hits. And there's no accompanying evidence that there was: 1) a bounty on any of these players (absurd even is the thought); or 2) post-game payments made for the legal hits. But somebody got hurt in a Saints' game one time, so clearly: HEINOUS PAY-TO-INJURE PROGRAM!

June 19th: The NFL said that Mike Ornstein corroborated the bounty on Favre. A few hours later, Ornstein said bullshit (I'm paraphrasing here) ... At this point, we should at least marginally appreciate the NFL's commitment to just making shit up whenever need be.

September 17th: The NFL's star witness, Gregg Williams, submitted an affidavit that implicated Vilma for the Favre bounty. In a flimsy attempt to cover his own ass, Williams also said "it was never my intent to cause our opponents to be injured." You mean, besides the January 2012 speech before the Saints' divisional playoff game against San Francisco? The one where you exhorted your defense to--among other things--"fuckin' take out [Crabtree's] outside ACL." What was your intent there, Gregg? Come on. Should we really trust Gregg Williams as a credible witness at this point?

September 17th: Also in the affidavit, Williams states he "was never given any money by anyone" for bounties. But guess what? On September 18th, the NFL released Mike Cerullo's accompanying affidavit in which Cerullo says "I personally collected the money that Mr. Vilma left on the table ... and subsequently gave it to Mr. Williams for safekeeping." Uh oh, someody's full of shit here.

But hey everybody, it doesn't matter! The Saints are clearly guilty! Just trust Goodell when he says he "weigh[ed] such differences and [made] a determination about what did and did not occur." Yes, of course. Roger Goodell is now divining the specifics of purported events. And anyway, Williams and Cerullo are both credible! Neither of them has any ulterior motive either!

October 9th: The NFL revealed that former Vikings' player Jimmy Kennedy came forward with information of a bounty on Brett Favre, and that the NFL "promptly investigated ... and interviewed Mr. Kennedy." You know what happened next? I bet you do... On October 10th, Jimmy Kennedy said that never happened, neither the submitted information nor the interview.

You told me this ...You told me that ... I see it in your eyes ... lies, lies, lies

Ok, that's all for now. I'm sure there will be many more future lies, so the fun's not done just yet. Stay tuned! In its own perverse way, BountyGate is the gift that keeps on giving.

Lastly, I feel certain I've missed plenty of stuff. Who can keep up anymore? Please feel free to add anything I've overlooked in the comments.

Enjoy the bye week.

Week Five, Chargers at Saints: Deus Ex Machina

2012-10-08T11:34:00.000-05:00

First, the stats.

Final Score: Saints 31, Chargers 24
Record: 1-4
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

DEUS EX MACHINA

For a second there, it looked like the 2012 season was officially circling the drain.

With Sean Payton agonizingly and helplessly watching the game fall apart from the late second quarter to the early third, a gift suddenly appeared to alter the game's course: a lone penalty flag.

That flag allowed the Saints to avoid what seemed like their grisly, inevitable destiny both on Sunday night and, perhaps, the season.

When Melvin Ingram hit Brees in the face, thus negating a Chargers' defensive TD that would've put the Saints in a 31-14 hole, the Saints had renewed hope.

They didn't make it easy; that's for damn sure. But they got there. And 1-4 headed into the bye instead of a hopeless 0-5 makes a world of difference right now.

Remote though it may be, there's still hope lingering. With the way last night ended, you'd have thought the Saints won the NFC Championship. That's how monumentally collective a reprieve from grief a victory finally delivered.

Though it goes without saying, it's been a long god damn seven months for the Saints and their fans.

Last night, even if only temporarily, a little bit of order was restored: some records broken (Brees and Colston); a raucous Dome crowd; Sean Payton, Mickey Loomis, and Joe Vitt in the building; and a much-needed win.

I think we all realize by now that nothing is coming easily this year, but that doesn't mean we can't enjoy this win for the next two weeks. Maybe the Saints can build on it, and rattle off a winning streak. It's not out of the question. Though circumstances are wildly different now, the Saints have unleashed winning streaks of 13 games ('09), six games ('10), and nine games ('11) during the past three years.

Objectively, that seems like a much bigger stretch this season. But you know what? I bet the players and the coaches believe it can happen. So let's see what they do going forward. And instead of immediately looking ahead and seeing what's to come, let's take some time to enjoy this win. They might be few and far between this season.

If there's one thing more annoying than the Saints' refusal to run the ball, it's the stubborn belief that "balance" is not all that important.

I'm not talking about a 50/50 split between running and passing, but it can't continue to be the lopsided 71/29 proposition it's been this season. That is absurd, and it's unsustainable.

The Saints are never going to consistently win being a partly one-dimensional team. An inept defense and an incomplete offense do not a winning team make. That's what the Saints were in 2007 and 2008: a passing offense and not much else. It's not a recipe for success.

I talked about this earlier in the season, but failing to develop some semblance of relative balance is weak strategy. Without the threat of balance, you're simplifying the demands on your opponents. You're allowing them to more effectively narrow your range of options, and as a result scheme more effectively.

I'll say it again: it’s not so much an effort to meet some arbitrary benchmark as it is an attempt to keep the opponent’s defensive decision-making as complex as possible.

Making it easier for your opponents is not the goal. Why do you think Brees is constantly under fire when he's throwing the ball? It's because opposing defensive coordinators can predict with a high degree of certainty that the Saints are going to throw, and thus scheme to combat that threat optimally.

Yes, the offensive line isn't as good as it's been in years past, but there's more to it than just that.

Last night, NBC showed a graphic of the Saints' passing percentages by downs. It went something like this:

1st down: 53%
2nd down: 86%
Third down: 93%
Fourth down: 100%

That's laughable. It's so skewed, you wonder if the coaches are even aware of it. It's to the point that tendencies are straying into rote, dogmatic dependency at the expense of the greater good.

Call it whatever you want, but developing tendencies that are so glaringly transparent is the essence of poor coaching. We should all hope this will be rectified during the bye week.

And now for the defense. Just ... holy shit.

I think we can stop debating whether it's coaching, scheme, or personnel to blame. It seems obvious that this is a perfect storm of ineptitude by all three.

The run defense is so poor, it's on pace to be one of the 15th worst since the 1970 merger.

More relevant, since 2000, the only teams that have been this bad at defending the run were the 2008 Lions (0-16) and the 2010 Bills (4-12). The Saints are on pace to be worse than those Lions, and markedly worse than the '10 Bills.

The only sliver of hope I see for the defense--in general--is that Martez Wilson and Junior Galette will continue to log significant snaps like they did last night. At this point, why limit their snaps because they're a liability in the run game? What difference does it make? It'd be tough to be much worse, and at least they can rush the passer.

Both of them looked promising to my bourbon-soaked eyes last night.

It's one thing that the run defense is so poor, but the pass defense isn't much better either. Through five games, the Saints are surrendering a 104.5 passer rating. For comparison, Alex Smith (yes, Alex Smith) leads the NFL with a 108.7 passer rating this year. Were it not for Matt Cassel's stinkbomb in week three, the numbers would be really ugly.

So for those scoring at home, what we have here is an historically atrocious run defense, combined the league's third-worst pass defense.

This is how your defense puts itself on pace to surrender 7,312 yards this season which, of course, would be the worst of all time. By a lot.

Like last night, we might witness the shattering of a few more all-time records before it's all said and done this season.

By the Numbers: The 2012 Saints Through Four Games

2012-10-05T06:55:00.000-05:00

After four games, here are the Saints' league-wide ranks in a variety of statistical categories:

Offense
* Points/game: 10th
* First half points scored: 10th
* Second half points scored: 7th (tie)
* Red zone scoring % (TDs): 3rd (tie)

* Yards: 8th
* Yards/play: 7th
* 3rd down conversion %: 9th

* Rush yards/game: 26th
* Rush yards/attempt: 9th
* Rush play %: 32nd

* Pass yards: 3rd (adjusted for sack yards lost)
* Pass yards/attempt: 14th (tie)

* DVOA: 11th
* WPA: 20th

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Defense
* Points allowed/game: 29th
* First half points allowed: 31st
* Second half points allowed: 26th
* Red zone scoring % allowed (TDs): 14th (tie)

* Yards allowed: 32nd
* Yards allowed/play: 30th
* 3rd down conversion % allowed: 19th

* Rush yards allowed: 32nd
* Rush yards allowed/attempt: 30th

* Pass yards allowed: 24th
* Pass yards allowed/attempt: 30th

* DVOA: 28th
* EPA: 32nd

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Assorted
* Turnover Margin (0): 8th (tie)
* Penalties: 27th (tie)
* Passer rating differential: 27th

Drive Stats
* Offense
- Average starting field position: 28th
- Drive success rate: 9th
- Points/drive: 10th

* Defense
- Average starting field position: 22nd
- Drive success rate: 29th
- Points allowed/drive: 29th

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Special Teams
* Thomas Morstead
- Punting, gross average: 3rd (51.1)
- Punting, net average: 3rd (45.9)

* Kickoff returns: 7th
* Punt returns: 21st
* DVOA: 16th

Week 4, Packers at Saints: A Step Behind

2012-10-01T08:21:00.001-05:00

First, the stats:

Final Score: Packers 28, Saints 27
Record: 0-4
Complete Box Score
Stat Chart:

A STEP BEHIND

In case it escaped your notice, the Saints have already lost more regular season games than they did in 2011. Just like that. After four weeks, the season is officially on life support if it wasn't already.

The weird thing is that the Saints have lost by only 8, 8, 3, and 1 point(s). No matter how sloppily and disjointed they've consistently played, they've been in every game at some point in the 4th quarter.

They may have played poorly, but they haven't given up. Nor should we.

Because the games have all been within reach does not discount the fact that the Saints have thoroughly earned their 0-4 record. They have. It just goes to show what a lot of talent and a coaching void will get you: not very much.

There's still a lot missing and yet there were plenty of signs of normalcy--the good kind of "normal"--on Sunday. It wasn't enough, obviously, but it seemed like a familiar team we were watching. During the three weeks prior, it wasn't just that the Saints were losing, but that they were suddenly unrecognizable.

Against the Packers, it felt better and it was a thoroughly enjoyable watch. The first three games were excruciating and inevitably doomed in their own ways. Yesterday was exceptionally entertaining and I didn't feel that pall of death hovering. Until I did. But by then, it was too late to ruin the day. Mostly, it was a fun game to watch.

For this season, that might have to suffice for the positivity.

Was it not fantastic to watch Graham Harrell tool out and botch that exchange? Was it not even more perfectly righteous when Jenkins recovered the fumble, after having knocked Rodgers from the game? You could almost hear the legions of mouthbreathing haters screaming all the predictable shit about the "evil Saints" at that moment. And then Joe Morgan soon turning the fumble recovery into a stellar 80-yard TD, and swinging the game in the Saints' favor?

It was a decidedly brilliant "we make the rules, pal" moment.

That sequence had it all: comedy, excitement, hopefulness, efficiency. More important, it was a glimpse of the familiar winning team we've come to know these past years. Even if it was only a brief moment, it was a reminder they're still in there somewhere. If those are the slivers of sustenance we have to subsist on this season, then so be it.

Because unfortunately it's going to take their maestro to elicit that greatness on a consistent basis, and that's not happening any time soon. Unless, of course, Joe Horn is onto something.

After four weeks, it's clear where Payton's absence is most recognizable: gameplanning, adjustments, and self-scouting. As just one example, consider the immense impact Payton might have on Spagnuolo's defensive schemes through the self-scouting process. Would it not be incredibly beneficial for Payton, widely considered the league's preeminent offensive mind, to illustrate where Spags' defense is weak? And how he would go about exploiting those weaknesses?

Think of the advantage in that, week in and week out. And think of how that might mask some of the defense's many shortcomings. And that's just one example of where Payton's absence is noticeable.

That's the thing with Payton: he's always been a step ahead; he's always had a smart plan and a bevy of adjustments at the ready. He's schemed to consistently keep opponents on their heels, to induce them into making an adjustment he's already planned for. Without him, it's the Saints who have consistently been on their heels. Instead of making adjustments after a few quarters, it took the Saints three f*cking games to do so.

These days, it's the opponents who are a step ahead and the Saints a step behind. That's how you bumble your way to 0-4, having lost each game by an average of five points doing mindlessly stupid shit.

I feel clinically insane for ever having misunderstood the impact of Payton's absence.

Teams don't win solely on talent, and I have no idea why I thought the Saints could. Look at San Diego these past several years. Or Philadelphia. Or Dallas.

There's so much more to it, and now we've got a front row seat to watch just how far talent alone will take you. To this point, that would be "not very far."

It's one thing to endure losses when the team is bad. But it's another kind of (new) pain to watch a talented team constantly fall short. At least it's something new, I guess.

Postscript

In the first half yesterday, I found myself morbidly fascinated with the defense's spectacular helplessness. It was an exercise in rubbernecking, and I was almost giddy for the defense to get back on the field. If it was going to be bad, I was excited to see just how bad. For the most part, they did not disappoint in their futility.

The defense is perilously close to being historically inept. Last year we were treated to a kindler, gentler, rewarding display of historic achievement by the offense.

This year, the script has been flipped. History's drunken cousin has rolled into town, looking to make a mark of his own. We might as well get on board and have some fun with it.