Roman Harper: Separating Fact from Fiction

Prior to the 2011 season, the Saints rewarded strong safety Roman Harper with a four year, $28.5 million dollar contract. According to the terms of the contract, Harper received a $7 million dollar signing bonus and a $16 million dollar guarantee. 


Contrast Harper's contract with Troy Polamalu's, whose 2011 contract extension terms were four years, $36.5 million with a $10.55 million dollar signing bonus. For the uninitiated, Polamalu is widely-considered the best safety in the NFL.


In light of this comparison and the relative similarity in contract terms, it's apparent that the Saints' front office highly values Roman Harper and considers him an integral part of the franchise, as well as one of the best safeties in the league. 


Popular sentiment on Harper's value seems to differ, however. 


In the Saints' 2010 wild card playoff loss against the Seahawks, Roman Harper played perhaps his worst game as a professional. On the heels of Harper's performance, Saints fans and the national media alike roundly ridiculed Harper. And speculation further mounted that the Saints would not sign him to a rich contract extension, and instead let him test the free agent market. 


This, as we know, never happened and Harper was handsomely rewarded. So what gives? Is Harper worthy of the contract? Or is he overpaid? Why would the Saints pay him in line with the top safeties in the league if popular sentiment seems to suggest that he isn't? 


A glance at some data might provide more insight. 


The sampling of data that follows reflects statistics on NFL safeties from 2006 to the current season to date. In these various statistical categories, I've included both the top-performing safeties in each category and some familiar, top-rated safeties to see where they rank as well.  This data is compiled from the exceptionally-fantastic www.pro-football-reference.com.

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The first table is a simple breakdown of the leading tacklers among NFL safeties since 2006. Harper ranks third among this group; further, among the top four tacklers, Harper has played the fewest games. 


What's important to extrapolate from this stat is that Harper is frequently "around the ball;" he's an efficient tackler; and he's highly impactful stopping the opponent's run game--perhaps his most-valued skill. Among current Saints defenders, Harper ranks second in tackles per game (4.9) behind only Jonathan Vilma (5.3).

					Games		Sacks & Tackles
Rk	Player	From	To	Tm	G	GS	Sk	Tkl ▾	Ast
1	Antrel Rolle	2006	2011	TOT	80	72	2.0	350	51
2	Chris Hope	2006	2011	OTI	76	76	4.0	349	87
3	Roman Harper	2006	2011	NOR	69	69	12.0	340	66
4	O.J. Atogwe	2006	2011	TOT	78	77	4.0	334	53
5	Yeremiah Bell	2006	2011	MIA	67	61	6.0	333	94
6	Kerry Rhodes	2006	2011	TOT	82	80	11.0	331	86
7	Donte Whitner	2006	2011	TOT	71	68	1.5	330	129
8	Brian Dawkins	2006	2011	TOT	71	71	6.0	328	77
11	Adrian Wilson	2006	2011	CRD	74	73	11.5	314	61
13	Eric Weddle	2007	2011	SDG	62	47	4.0	303	68
22	Nick Collins	2006	2011	GNB	79	79	1.0	263	55
23	LaRon Landry	2007	2010	WAS	56	56	4.0	255	79
25	Ryan Clark	2006	2011	PIT	66	64	1.0	246	121
30	Troy Polamalu	2006	2011	PIT	61	61	3.0	232	74
40	Ed Reed	2006	2011	RAV	72	72	1.0	198	43
70	Bob Sanders	2006	2011	TOT	30	30	3.5	125	53

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2011.

This second table shows that Harper leads all NFL safeties in sacks since the 2006 season. Sacks, highly influential events, play an integral role in a defense's capacity to operate adequately and efficiently. 


That Harper is likely the very best blitzing safety in the league, combined with Gregg Williams' blitz-centric scheme, reflects Harper's high value to the function and philosophy of the defense. 


Last week against the Bears, Harper recorded two sacks as the Saints limited the Bears to 13 points.

					Games		Sacks & Tackles
Rk	Player	From	To	Tm	G	GS	Sk	Tkl	Ast
1	Roman Harper	2006	2011	NOR	69	69	12.0	340	66
2	Adrian Wilson	2006	2011	CRD	74	73	11.5	314	61
3	Kerry Rhodes	2006	2011	TOT	82	80	11.0	331	86
4	Michael Lewis	2006	2010	TOT	66	56	7.5	275	79
5	Nedu Ndukwe	2007	2010	CIN	53	31	7.5	173	76
6	Chris Crocker	2006	2011	TOT	68	61	6.5	199	43
7	Yeremiah Bell	2006	2011	MIA	67	61	6.0	333	94
8	Brian Dawkins	2006	2011	TOT	71	71	6.0	328	77
19	O.J. Atogwe	2006	2011	TOT	78	77	4.0	334	53
24	LaRon Landry	2007	2010	WAS	56	56	4.0	255	79
26	Eric Weddle	2007	2011	SDG	62	47	4.0	303	68
30	Bob Sanders	2006	2011	TOT	30	30	3.5	125	53
41	Troy Polamalu	2006	2011	PIT	61	61	3.0	232	74
77	Nick Collins	2006	2011	GNB	79	79	1.0	263	55
97	Ed Reed	2006	2011	RAV	72	72	1.0	198	43

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2011.

Combined with his elite ability to sack the QB is Harper's frequency at forcing turnovers. Since 2006, Harper is third among NFL safeties with 13 forced fumbles. In a league where turnover differential is paramount to success, having a player like Harper who is adept at separating the ball from the opponent is a highly-valued and sought-after skill. 


And Harper, as the stats show, is one of the best at this. Last season alone, Harper was second overall among all NFL defenders in forced fumbles (6), trailing only the New York Giants' DE Osi Umenyiora (10)

					Games		Fumbles
Rk	Player	From	To	Tm	G	GS	Fmb	FR	TD	FF
1	O.J. Atogwe	2006	2011	TOT	78	77	0	7	1	16
2	Brian Dawkins	2006	2011	TOT	71	71	0	4	0	14
3	Roman Harper	2006	2011	NOR	69	69	0	1	0	13
4	Chris Harris	2006	2011	TOT	72	68	1	7	0	12
5	Jermaine Phillips	2006	2009	TAM	44	44	0	2	1	9
6	Yeremiah Bell	2006	2011	MIA	67	61	0	4	0	8
7	Bernard Pollard	2006	2010	TOT	76	59	0	7	1	8
8	C.C. Brown	2006	2010	TOT	65	49	0	4	0	7
9	Abram Elam	2006	2011	TOT	78	50	0	4	1	7
10	Danieal Manning	2006	2011	TOT	79	58	2	4	0	7
11	Adrian Wilson	2006	2011	CRD	74	73	0	4	1	7
16	Ed Reed	2006	2011	RAV	72	72	8	8	1	6
20	LaRon Landry	2007	2010	WAS	56	56	0	4	0	5
24	Troy Polamalu	2006	2011	PIT	61	61	0	2	0	5
29	Nick Collins	2006	2011	GNB	79	79	0	4	1	4

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2011.

Where Harper is exploitable, most obviously, is in man-to-man pass coverage. And while this flaw has been exposed by opposing offenses in the past, and remains a liability to the defense, it's not a fatal flaw nor is it irreparable. More specifically, Harper is not as poor in pass coverage as it seems. Since 2006, he ranks 19th in "passes defended" among the top-100 rated safeties. While certainly not elite, it's certainly not terrible either. 


Remember that Harper is still only 28, and there is room for improvement in this area. Combined with Gregg Williams' tactics to minimize this area of weakness, there's no reason--at all--to believe that Roman Harper is a liability in general. It's unreasonable to think that every player has to be perfect in every area of the game. Instead, it's incumbent upon coaches to minimize exposure to team weaknesses. 


For Harper, a poor performance in a nationally-televised post season game has generated perceptions that fall far short of reality. 


The reality is that Harper is mostly a high-performing safety who's made consecutive Pro Bowl appearances and plays a key role for the Saints' defense.